Top Creators News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Top Creators
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM
78.3%chance
167101556
OptionVotes
18397
5828
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?
Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
81.03%chance
9525701
OptionVotes
2522
563
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
7.36%chance
5520055
OptionVotes
2694
737
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?
Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
85.55%chance
5613045
OptionVotes
2573
538
🧭Which of these things will happen before Ukraine joins NATO? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mar 6, 9:20 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
497352
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
95
90
85
82
81
74
73
72
65
65
64
64
62
59
52
51
51
50
45
41
36
31
29
28
26
26
7
6
OptionVotes
4202
238
Will 50%+ of the Top Creators on the Manifold leaderboard by end of 2025 have 20K or more followers on their Twitter accounts?
Jan 26, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
6%chance
112362
OptionVotes
3280
685
Will 50%+ of the top market creators on Manifold as of Jan 2023 be displaced from the Top 20 list by end of 2025?
Jan 26, 3:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
95.79%chance
10896
OptionVotes
930
86
Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?
Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM
25.25%chance
15869
OptionVotes
1107
931
Someone induces BlackPink to have babies to help South Korea's TFR by mid 2029
Nov 11, 9:30 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM
27.31%chance
10762
OptionVotes
1631
613
Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?
Mar 30, 12:08 AMJul 1, 10:59 PM
41.04%chance
9213
OptionVotes
1199
834
Will I be the top creator on Manifold when the website shuts down?
Mar 7, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.96%chance
543
OptionVotes
100
100


