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Top stories

FBI Captures ‘Top Ten’ Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh in India

FBI Captures ‘Top Ten’ Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh in India

Authors

13

14 hours ago

Prediction markets for Top Ten

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64%chance

351950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

911

Top Soccer Transfers

Jul 29, 8:08 PMSep 15, 7:53 PM

10876

OptionProbability

Florian Wirtz

Benjamin Šeško

Alexander Isak

Carlos Baleba

Viktor Gyökeres

Jamie Gittens

99

66

56

15

2

2

Will "It's been ten years. I propose HPMOR Annivers..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 17, 4:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

1.44%chance

2806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

794

71

Will Bodhana Sivanandan be rated in the world chess top ten according to FIDE by end of 2034?

Dec 24, 5:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.8%chance

5723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

669

143

Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?

Nov 23, 11:30 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

52.46%chance

20597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

982

By 2030, will a videogame that uses generative AI to create content make Steam's top ten games by user count?

Feb 17, 1:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.63%chance

14509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

866

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

892

Will an autonomous humanoid robot consistently defeat top tennis players by 2040?

Mar 17, 4:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.16%chance

15376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

184

Will Alan Moore ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:13 PMOct 16, 6:59 AM

16.98%chance

5366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will "Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 15, 4:51 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

10

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Ten people on the inside" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 28, 10:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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