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Top stories

FBI Captures ‘Top Ten’ Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh in India

FBI Captures ‘Top Ten’ Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh in India

Authors

13

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Top Ten

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

Will Finland be the happiest country for the 9th year in a row?

Dec 30, 5:12 AMMar 19, 9:59 PM

79.69%chance

191383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1981

505

Will epigenetic reprogramming-related pathways rank among the top ten pathways that improve neural graft survival?

Nov 24, 5:06 AMMar 24, 4:05 AM

73.65%chance

61024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1672

598

Will "It's been ten years. I propose HPMOR Annivers..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 17, 4:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

1.59%chance

3807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

729

72

Will Bodhana Sivanandan be rated in the world chess top ten according to FIDE by end of 2034?

Dec 24, 5:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.8%chance

5723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

669

143

Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?

Nov 23, 11:30 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

49.88%chance

21647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

929

By 2030, will a videogame that uses generative AI to create content make Steam's top ten games by user count?

Feb 17, 1:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.63%chance

14509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

866

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

892

Will an autonomous humanoid robot consistently defeat top tennis players by 2040?

Mar 17, 4:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.01%chance

16386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

194

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will Canada be top ten in IMO 2026?

Sep 1, 9:55 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

28.7%chance

11122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

Will "Ten people on the inside" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 28, 10:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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