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Top stories

FBI Captures ‘Top Ten’ Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh in India

FBI Captures ‘Top Ten’ Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh in India

Authors

13

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Top Ten

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

Will epigenetic reprogramming-related pathways rank among the top ten pathways that improve neural graft survival?

Nov 24, 5:06 AMMar 24, 4:05 AM

73.65%chance

61024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1672

598

Will "It's been ten years. I propose HPMOR Annivers..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 17, 4:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

1.44%chance

2806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

794

71

Will Bodhana Sivanandan be rated in the world chess top ten according to FIDE by end of 2034?

Dec 24, 5:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.8%chance

5723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

669

143

Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?

Nov 23, 11:30 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

52.46%chance

20597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

982

By 2030, will a videogame that uses generative AI to create content make Steam's top ten games by user count?

Feb 17, 1:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.63%chance

14509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

866

Will "Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 15, 4:51 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

892

Will an autonomous humanoid robot consistently defeat top tennis players by 2040?

Mar 17, 4:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.16%chance

15376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

184

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will Canada be top ten in IMO 2026

Sep 1, 9:55 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

28.7%chance

11122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

Will "Ten people on the inside" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 28, 10:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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