Top News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Top
[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.5%chance
404282020
OptionVotes
15748
2869
OptionProbability
46
43
6
2
1
1
1
0
What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)
Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4653117
OptionProbability
61
15
12
4
2
2
2
2
1
Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?
Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.97%chance
1418493
OptionVotes
2262
1776
Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?
Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.01%chance
7513000
OptionVotes
1266
588
OptionProbability
36
32
19
8
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM
67.89%chance
676430
OptionVotes
1451
640
2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)
Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.67%chance
112450
OptionVotes
3168
2299
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
62.94%chance
372146
OptionVotes
1014
884
Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?
Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
40.27%chance
7543
OptionVotes
1218
821
What will the top score on Epoch AI's Chess Puzzles benchmark be on November 30, 2026?
Nov 1, 4:26 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
25
25
25
25
Who will finish first in the 2028 top-two primary for governor in Washington?
Nov 5, 11:19 PMAug 2, 12:00 PM
00
OptionProbability
70
18
12