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Prediction markets for Transparency Initiative
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.57%chance
3612418
OptionVotes
19650
5089
On what year will Esmeralda have its first 50 non-staff permanent residents?
Oct 19, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
72859
OptionProbability
33
30
26
20
20
19
18
17
17
17
13
11
Will the energy biding zones for either Germany or France be split by 2030?
Feb 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
50%chance
1750
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will the paper "Model Cards for Model Reporting" still be influential in 2025?
Aug 31, 3:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
68.25%chance
6410
OptionVotes
205
113
Congress investigates Epstein files handling before September 30, 2025?
Jul 16, 7:28 PMSep 29, 11:59 PM
38.28%chance
12331
OptionVotes
127
79
Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?
Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM
22.43%chance
4110
OptionVotes
186
54
Will the UK revoke citizenship from more than 5,000 naturalised citizens in any single year by EOY2030?
Jul 22, 10:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
34.79%chance
465
OptionVotes
137
73