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Top stories

London Underground Staff Call Week-Long Strike From Sept. 5 Amid Wider Transport Unrest

London Underground Staff Call Week-Long Strike From Sept. 5 Amid Wider Transport Unrest

Authors

11

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Tube

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11928

1118

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.09%chance

124921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5899

3086

Will Contrapoints release a video about Philosophy Tube before the end of 2026?

Mar 26, 3:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.82%chance

433470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3870

1610

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2025?

Jun 9, 10:51 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

5.27%chance

233398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1984

20

Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?

Aug 24, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

231753

OptionProbability

Other

Mars

Enceladus

Europa

Luna (presumably in a shaded crater/magma tube)

Titan

Venus

K2-18 b

Earth

The Big Bang

Ceres

Pluto/Charon

Triton

Pluto

Charon

TRAPPIST-1d

Proxima Centauri b

Unknown

25

20

18

14

11

8

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will anyone create an infinite slide before 2030?

Sep 23, 3:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.67%chance

391380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

824

When will tuberculosis kill less than 1 million people a year?

Aug 3, 2:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

13790

OptionProbability

Other

2028

2029

2030

2025 or earlier

2026

2027

58

11

11

10

5

2

2

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be available by the end of 2032?

Sep 26, 4:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72%chance

18362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2081

1952

Will the new BART Transbay tube be completed by 2040

Jan 6, 6:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.44%chance

5131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

97

Will Contrapoints release a video about Philosophy Tube before the end of 2028?

Aug 22, 4:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.75%chance

4108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Will car tubeless tires become commercially available by 2030?

Oct 20, 3:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.9%chance

261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

79

61

Will the M72/AS01E tuberculosis vaccine candidate have an efficacy of 50% or higher in the phase 3 trial?

Aug 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.76%chance

424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

97

83

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
Britain
World
London Underground Staff Call Week-Long Strike From Sept. 5 Amid Wider Transport Unrest
Authors
11
3 months ago

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