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Top stories

London Underground Staff Call Week-Long Strike From Sept. 5 Amid Wider Transport Unrest

London Underground Staff Call Week-Long Strike From Sept. 5 Amid Wider Transport Unrest

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Tube

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.22%chance

2511293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11988

1114

Will Contrapoints release a video about Philosophy Tube before the end of 2026?

Mar 26, 3:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.3%chance

4611234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9701

1267

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.83%chance

146935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7913

2338

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?

Jun 9, 10:52 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

7.49%chance

262573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1833

26

Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?

Aug 24, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

242387

OptionProbability

Other

Mars

Europa

Titan

Enceladus

Venus

K2-18 b

Earth

The Big Bang

Ceres

Pluto/Charon

Triton

Luna (presumably in a shaded crater/magma tube)

Pluto

Charon

TRAPPIST-1d

Proxima Centauri b

Unknown

58

18

8

6

5

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will tuberculosis kill less than 1 million people a year?

Aug 3, 2:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

141989

OptionProbability

Other

2029

2030

2028

2027

2025 or earlier

2026

60

12

12

10

3

2

1

Will anyone create an infinite slide before 2030?

Sep 23, 3:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.43%chance

401430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

785

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be available by the end of 2032?

Sep 26, 4:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72%chance

18362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2081

1952

Will Contrapoints release a video about Philosophy Tube before the end of 2028?

Aug 22, 4:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.73%chance

5198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

36

Will the new BART Transbay tube be completed by 2040

Jan 6, 6:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.44%chance

5131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

97

Will car tubeless tires become commercially available by 2030?

Oct 20, 3:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.9%chance

261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

79

61

Will the M72/AS01E tuberculosis vaccine candidate have an efficacy of 50% or higher in the phase 3 trial?

Aug 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.76%chance

424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

97

83

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
Britain
World
London Underground Staff Call Week-Long Strike From Sept. 5 Amid Wider Transport Unrest
Authors
11
1 year ago

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