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Prediction markets for Tube
Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?
Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
5.22%chance
2511293
OptionVotes
11988
1114
Will Contrapoints release a video about Philosophy Tube before the end of 2026?
Mar 26, 3:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3.3%chance
4611234
OptionVotes
9701
1267
Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.83%chance
146935
OptionVotes
7913
2338
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?
Jun 9, 10:52 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM
7.49%chance
262573
OptionVotes
1833
26
OptionProbability
58
18
8
6
5
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
60
12
12
10
3
2
1
OptionVotes
1187
785
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be available by the end of 2032?
Sep 26, 4:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
72%chance
18362
OptionVotes
2081
1952
Will Contrapoints release a video about Philosophy Tube before the end of 2028?
Aug 22, 4:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.73%chance
5198
OptionVotes
274
36
OptionVotes
230
97
Will car tubeless tires become commercially available by 2030?
Oct 20, 3:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63.9%chance
261
OptionVotes
79
61
Will the M72/AS01E tuberculosis vaccine candidate have an efficacy of 50% or higher in the phase 3 trial?
Aug 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
58.76%chance
424
OptionVotes
97
83
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