UFS News

AYN Unveils Thor Dual-Screen Handheld, Challenging Ayaneo’s Pocket DS

1 year ago

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96%chance

101110548402

OptionVotes

YES

31064

8145

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

112449970

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2028

Before January 2029

Before January 2030

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.27%chance

10348492

OptionVotes

YES

1501

1343

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

318436

OptionVotes

YES

1072

965

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Dec 21, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.43%chance

788266

OptionVotes

YES

4995

915

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

606627

OptionProbability

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

US president makes official announcement confirming UFOs or extraterrestrials before 2033?

Nov 16, 6:00 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

39.88%chance

182731

OptionVotes

YES

1228

814

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

50%chance

92240

OptionVotes

YES

479

304

Will UFC host another event in the MSG Sphere in last Vegas before 2028?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.78%chance

41176

OptionVotes

YES

1790

559

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have publicly proclaimed belief in UFOs?

Nov 1, 6:07 AMNov 2, 6:59 AM

22.04%chance

16708

OptionVotes

YES

1236

909

Will there be another UFC event at the Las Vegas Sphere after UFC 306 by 2050?

Sep 5, 9:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.78%chance

8638

OptionVotes

YES

1484

674

What will US voter turnout be in the 2026 midterms? (UF Election Lab VEP turnout rate)

Oct 25, 6:41 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

5474

OptionProbability

49.0% to 50.9%

47.0% to 48.9%

45.0% to 46.9%

51.0% to 52.9%

Below 45.0%

53.0% or higher

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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

US president makes official announcement confirming UFOs or extraterrestrials before 2033?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Will UFC host another event in the MSG Sphere in last Vegas before 2028?

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have publicly proclaimed belief in UFOs?

Will there be another UFC event at the Las Vegas Sphere after UFC 306 by 2050?

What will US voter turnout be in the 2026 midterms? (UF Election Lab VEP turnout rate)

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