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V3 News

SpaceX Signs First Mars Starship Deal With Italian Space Agency

SpaceX Signs First Mars Starship Deal With Italian Space Agency

18

3 months ago

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.78%chance

7553121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46557

2925

When will we first see a Raptor V3 (or other**) engine fly on a Starship?

Feb 24, 2:32 PMMar 1, 12:59 PM

1514892

OptionProbability

Before June 2026

Before March 2026

Before June

Before August

Before October

Before 2025

Before July 2025

Before January 2026

Before April 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

85

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Did DeepSeek receive unannounced assistance from OpenAI in the creation of their v3 model?

Jan 22, 1:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.51%chance

268890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.99%chance

376383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5698

175

First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?

Jun 6, 2:22 AMJan 1, 3:11 AM

345688

OptionProbability

Other

Gemini 3.0

Gemini 3.5

Grok 4.5

GPT-6

GPT-5.5

Gemini 2.5

Claude 4.5

GPT 5

Grok 4.1

GPT-5.1

Claude 5

ChatGPT 4o

o3

Claude 4

Grok 3.5

o4

Deepseek r1

Deepseek r2

Deepseek v3

Deepseek v4

GPT-4.1 or similar

Claude 4.1 or similar

Gemini 2.7 or similar

Grok 4

43

26

15

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?

Jan 27, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.44%chance

233562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1189

841

How much did DeepSeek V3 cost to create?

Jan 28, 10:27 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

12527

OptionProbability

>$6M, <=$100M

<=$6M

>$100M, <=$1B

>$1B, <=$10B

>$10B, <=$100B

$100B+

52

23

8

6

6

4

Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?

Sep 4, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.56%chance

16369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

First fully successful Starship v3 flight?

Nov 23, 1:14 AMNov 23, 1:05 AM

10191

OptionProbability

Flight 13

Flight 14

Flight 12

Other

Flight 15

48

17

13

12

10

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

50%chance

374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

21

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v3

Sep 4, 11:22 PM

80

Latest stories

Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Italy
Space
Science
SpaceX Signs First Mars Starship Deal With Italian Space Agency
Authors
18
3 months ago

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