V3 News
Top stories
Prediction markets for V3
OptionProbability
91
16
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
1.03%chance
4010690
OptionVotes
9794
102
OptionProbability
86
76
63
22
0
OptionProbability
57
45
14
14
14
12
8
Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?
Sep 4, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3%chance
20849
OptionVotes
569
18
OptionProbability
44
32
22
1
1
Will "Responsible Scaling Policy v3" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Feb 25, 3:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.92%chance
1400
OptionVotes
1400
947
Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?
Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.54%chance
10274
OptionVotes
175
57
Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
40%chance
381
OptionVotes
122
30
OptionProbability
50
45
31
30
25
OptionProbability
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9


