V3 News

SpaceX Signs First Mars Starship Deal With Italian Space Agency

8 months ago

When will we first see a Raptor V3 (or other**) engine fly on a Starship?

Feb 24, 2:32 PMJun 1, 1:59 PM

1919102

OptionProbability

Before June 2026

Before June

Before August

Before October

Before 2025

Before July 2025

Before January 2026

Before April 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before March 2026

Elon Musk (props)

Mar 7, 12:23 PMMar 7, 12:23 PM

3512359

OptionProbability

Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.52%chance

398835

OptionVotes

YES

8049

124

AI Singularity (props)

Mar 7, 12:48 PMMar 7, 12:48 PM

112783

OptionProbability

The top Elo score on the EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3 leaderboard exceeds 2000 before 2027-01-01

At least three major AI labs (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) release public multi-LLM agentic reasoning models before 2027-01-01

xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01

Tesla Q1 26 Earnings Claims Prop Bets

Apr 24, 11:55 AMDec 31, 4:00 PM

3691

OptionProbability

At least 100 Cybercabs produced in 2026

At least 100 Semis produced in 2026

At least 10 Optimus V3 or later produced in 2026

Robotaxis in at least 12 states in 2026

Roadster unveiled before May 24th 2026

Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?

Sep 4, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.02%chance

19619

OptionVotes

YES

339

Will "Responsible Scaling Policy v3" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 25, 3:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.92%chance

1400

OptionVotes

YES

1400

947

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

175

First fully successful Starship v3 flight?

Nov 23, 1:14 AMNov 23, 1:05 AM

16230

OptionProbability

Flight 12

Flight 13

Flight 14

Other

Flight 15

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

40%chance

381

OptionVotes

YES

122

What will be true of the announced EU-funded OpenEuroLLM?

Feb 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

445

OptionProbability

It will be better than Phi-4

It will be released before 2027

It will be better than LLama-3.3-70B-Instruct

It will be released before 2026

It will be better than Deepseek-V3

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v3

Sep 4, 11:22 PM

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Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Italy
Space
Science
SpaceX Signs First Mars Starship Deal With Italian Space Agency
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8 months ago

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When will we first see a Raptor V3 (or other**) engine fly on a Starship?

Elon Musk (props)

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

AI Singularity (props)

Tesla Q1 26 Earnings Claims Prop Bets

Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?

Will "Responsible Scaling Policy v3" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

First fully successful Starship v3 flight?

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

What will be true of the announced EU-funded OpenEuroLLM?

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v3

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