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Prediction markets for VC
Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?
May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM
23.34%chance
73165995
OptionVotes
114234
27276
OptionProbability
60
44
28
22
19
12
10
Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030?
Dec 22, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.83%chance
578939
OptionVotes
1455
514
5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.
Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
13.91%chance
283077
OptionVotes
2488
402
Will Boeing and Airbus divest their space divisions in 2025? (Prediction from a $150M VC firm)
Jan 24, 12:52 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
29.8%chance
9958
OptionVotes
1535
651
OptionProbability
56
21
19
5
By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?
Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
67.82%chance
17695
OptionVotes
1026
899
Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?
Mar 1, 3:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
69.92%chance
12366
OptionVotes
1067
956
Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?
Sep 21, 8:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
18.48%chance
155
OptionVotes
125
44
Will vcf files be replaced with a more elegant way of representing SNPs/genetic variants by 2030?
Oct 5, 4:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33.35%chance
350
OptionVotes
126
97
Is a major silicon valley VC fund involved in pederasty?
Nov 20, 8:07 AMDec 31, 12:58 PM
47.83%chance
110
OptionVotes
256
236
claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?
Mar 2, 5:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.75%chance
110
OptionVotes
110
91
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