Verge News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Verge
Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
7.9%chance
183860
OptionVotes
3414
293
Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)
Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
82.44%chance
443737
OptionVotes
2178
414
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
82.06%chance
372697
OptionVotes
1928
630
Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?
Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
27.74%chance
221693
OptionVotes
1726
368
OptionProbability
38
34
17
11
OptionVotes
1105
879
OptionProbability
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
34%chance
11621
OptionVotes
1393
718
What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?
May 26, 10:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
5426
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.57%chance
4317
OptionVotes
1141
876
OptionProbability
38
34
34
33
32
30
0
Will Alex Heath create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 5:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
11.28%chance
7208
OptionVotes
347
120
Latest stories
Latest stories