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Top stories

Google Adds One-Click Vids Editing for Videos Stored in Drive

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Vids

Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?

Feb 16, 11:40 AMDec 15, 9:59 PM

29.23%chance

15673728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2369

545

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.84%chance

20057539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

994

How many YouTube views will the peak AXRP video get in 2025?

Sep 14, 9:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

843460

OptionProbability

1,000 - 3,161

3,162 - 10,000

> 10,000

< 1,000

77

16

7

1

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2714033

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

51

48

43

41

34

10

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1112701

OptionProbability

2026

2030 or later

2027

2028

2029

2025

2024

21

21

18

14

14

12

1

If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.18%chance

955673

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1920

1549

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.82%chance

285164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3696

271

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

535035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1439

430

When will we get the first successful video game that uses vid gen instead of a traditional engine?

May 25, 6:17 PMMay 26, 6:16 PM

111190

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2026

2027

2030

2025

30

23

21

17

5

4

Google Vids discontinued before July 1, 2027?

Jun 30, 8:15 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

45.67%chance

8472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

917

Convincing video of Jose Luis ricon playing main role in boulevard of broken dreams YT vid by 2030

Apr 1, 9:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.67%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

123

Which month will JonTron release his next video?

Sep 13, 12:34 AMJan 1, 1:32 AM

00

OptionProbability

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April through December 2026

Other

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

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