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Wall Street News

    Prediction markets for Wall Street

    Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

    Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    27.51%chance
    5226655

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1624

    616

    Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions

    Dec 21, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    488065

    OptionProbability

    Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate.

    Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.

    We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).

    No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race”.

    Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic will escalate.

    2025 will be known as the year of the peak bubble, and also the moment at which Wall Street began to lose confidence in generative AI.

    96

    92

    91

    84

    67

    11

    Will GME reach $30 before the end of 2026?

    Jan 8, 9:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    32.76%chance
    105216

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1433

    698

    Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

    Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    20.55%chance
    424883

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1966

    509

    2026 Financial Times Business Book of the Year

    Mar 4, 7:34 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    73033

    OptionProbability

    Project Maven | Katrina Manson

    Prophecy | Carissa Véliz

    Blood Will Flow | Alex Perry

    1873: The First Great Depression and the Making of the Modern World | Liaquat Ahamed

    The Infinity Machine | Sebastian Mallaby

    Off the Scales | Aimee Donnellan

    Money to Burn: Leon Black, Apollo and the Remaking of Wall Street | William D. Cohan

    Streetwise: Getting to and Through Goldman Sachs | Lloyd Blankfein

    I Am Not a Robot: My Year Using AI to Do (Almost) Everything | Joanna Stern

    Steve Jobs in Exile | Geoffrey Cain

    Inside the Box | David Epstein

    The Age of Extraction | Tim Wu

    London Falling | Patrick Radden Keefe

    House of Fidelity: The Rise of the Johnson Dynasty and the Company That Changed American Investing | Justin Baer

    The Curious Case of Mike Lynch: The Improbable Life & Death of a Tech Billionaire | Katie Prescot

    Control Science: How Management Made the Modern World by Henry Sno

    Incorruptible: Why Good Companies Go Bad . . . and How Great Companies Stay Great by Eric Ries

    Adrift in the South by Xiao Hai

    Plastic Inc.: Big Oil, Big Money and the Plan to Trash Our Future by Beth Gardiner

    Bonfire of the Murdochs | Gabriel Sherman

    The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth by Nicolas Niarchos

    Robot-Proof: When Machines Have All the Answers, Build Better People by Vivienne Ming

    The Rise and Fall of the Artificial State | Jill Lepore

    Hyperscale | Paris Marx

    Frontierlands | Hazel Sheffield

    How Africa Works | Joe Studwell

    The UPS Man | Marc Levinson

    We Know You Can Pay a Million | Anja Shortland

    Other

    18

    16

    16

    16

    15

    15

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

    Jul 2, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    35.21%chance
    102486

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1357

    737

    Will AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?

    Feb 12, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    21.56%chance
    101181

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1708

    117

    Which of the following media outlets will close *or* undergo significant downsizing/restructuring before 2028?

    Mar 2, 3:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    17821

    OptionProbability

    Epoch Times

    Wired

    Time

    TMZ

    Los Angeles Times

    New York Post

    USA Today

    The Onion

    Times of India

    Gateway Pundit

    Babylon Bee

    Daily Wire

    Newsmax

    Breitbart

    Associated Press (AP)

    The Information

    NPR

    The Base Rate Times

    NPR

    Fox News

    Wall Street Journal

    CNN

    Al Jazeera

    BBC

    New York Times

    92

    72

    72

    72

    69

    66

    66

    56

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    46

    45

    42

    41

    39

    34

    34

    34

    34

    20

    9

    🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films that haven't been on it before will make it? [ADD RESPONSES]

    Mar 4, 4:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    10641

    OptionProbability

    Inception

    Oppenheimer

    Wolf of Wall Street

    Whiplash

    Spirited Away

    Interstellar

    Mad Max Fury Road

    Arrival

    Poor Things

    Everything Everywhere All At Once

    The Dark Knight

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

    The Martian

    Drive

    Baby Driver

    Paul Blart Mall Cop

    Napoleon

    Paul Blart Mall Cop 2

    79

    74

    66

    66

    66

    64

    63

    59

    50

    50

    50

    41

    41

    41

    34

    27

    15

    14

    11

    Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

    Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    14.42%chance
    15577

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1455

    887

    US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

    Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
    45.42%chance
    5298

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1096

    912

    Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

    May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM
    52.98%chance
    5183

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1061

    942

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