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Top stories

Google to Unveil Pixel 10 Series Including Pro Fold, Tensor G5 Chip, Qi2 25W Charging, and Pixel Watch 4 on August 20

Google to Unveil Pixel 10 Series Including Pro Fold, Tensor G5 Chip, Qi2 25W Charging, and Pixel Watch 4 on August 20

Authors

63

12 days ago

Prediction markets for watch

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.31%chance

9025606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3919

917

By the end of 2025, there will be an Apple Watch that has a glucose sensor

Feb 13, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.66%chance

166449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6050

165

Will this market "Are aliens watching Earth?" be resolved in a way I consider meaningful and supported?

Feb 15, 2:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.42%chance

15780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

979

Will VLXXHub become Vietnam's #1 streaming service by total watch hours by December 31st, 2025?

Dec 10, 1:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.47%chance

2625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

615

Will an Apple Watch have the ability to measure CO2 in the air by 2028?

Sep 1, 5:29 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

28.38%chance

15423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

924

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.84%chance

3410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

946

Will an Apple Watch with no-prick blood glucose monitoring come out by 2029?

May 27, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.59%chance

9339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

118

Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?

May 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

65.19%chance

15287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

954

How many millions of people will watch the next moon landing?

Apr 12, 4:20 AMApr 2, 5:59 AM

9181

How many millions of people will watch the first Mars Landing?

Apr 12, 6:37 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

4160

Will "Introducing AI Lab Watch" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Apr 30, 7:08 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.13%chance

691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

254

171

Will Barton Rhodes or Alex Zhu watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on psychedelics by EOY2045

Oct 3, 8:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.06%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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