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Prediction markets for Wave
OptionVotes
1036
945
Where will the next generation EU gravitational wave telescope (Einstein telescope) be built?
Sep 21, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
975684
OptionProbability
29
27
24
15
4
Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]
Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.23%chance
252768
OptionVotes
2511
613
OptionVotes
1167
857
Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?
Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
52.23%chance
151487
OptionVotes
1092
1069
Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?
Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM
38%chance
18447
OptionVotes
1089
935
Will gravitational waves be used as a viable means of communication by 2100?
Jun 12, 4:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.66%chance
7274
OptionVotes
348
70
Will GiveWell fund an intervention to avoid deaths from heat waves before 2028?
Jul 4, 10:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.45%chance
5220
OptionVotes
1213
824
Will NASA and the ESA still be collaboratively pursuing the LISA gravitational wave mission in 2028?
Jan 10, 5:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
87.73%chance
5146
OptionVotes
276
83
Will "Response to nostalgebraist: proudly waving my..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 20, 3:35 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
1100
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?
Jun 4, 2:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.95%chance
350
OptionVotes
122
66
Will drinking heavy water/deuterium significantly affect relative ratio of fast to slow brain waves (and 1/f falloff)?
Jan 25, 11:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
59.02%chance
110
OptionVotes
80
62
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