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Top stories

EA Tweaks Battlefield 6 After Record-Setting Beta

EA Tweaks Battlefield 6 After Record-Setting Beta

Authors

6

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Weapon

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?

Mar 17, 7:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

10.02%chance

20733551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

1098

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?

Jan 5, 5:28 AMDec 27, 9:59 PM

24.48%chance

9116327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

485

77

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?

Jul 5, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33.68%chance

428190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

587

Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?

Jun 24, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.02%chance

437396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4356

230

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.

Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.11%chance

316999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2469

969

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?

Apr 5, 1:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.05%chance

636268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

565

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.01%chance

255857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14146

7120

Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)

Jun 29, 8:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9%chance

112415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will nuclear weapons be used on Earth before 2050?

Oct 2, 12:53 AMDec 2, 6:59 AM

38.6%chance

22772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

905

Will the IDF fight against Abu Shabab (a Palestinian militia they supplied with weapons) by the end of 2026?

Jun 5, 10:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.81%chance

7615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

629

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

981

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