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Prediction markets for Week Pass
By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?
Dec 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
55.54%chance
4310746
OptionVotes
1097
854
By 2028, will I think OpenAI has been net-good for the world?
Dec 2, 8:34 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
25.43%chance
346095
OptionVotes
1270
866
Will the official ClaudePlaysPokemon stream complete Pokémon Red?
Feb 25, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52.34%chance
364787
OptionVotes
1048
954
By 2028, will I think MIRI has been net-good for the world?
Nov 29, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
79.71%chance
234040
OptionVotes
1688
729
Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?
Aug 13, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
60%chance
293222
OptionVotes
122
82
By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?
Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
38.66%chance
251521
OptionVotes
1156
871
OptionVotes
1352
740
Before 2050, will any human pass out from exposure to vacuum in space and then survive?
Mar 1, 12:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
36.21%chance
13531
OptionVotes
1010
960
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 15 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
Jan 15, 11:43 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM
16.39%chance
12472
OptionVotes
233
58
By 2028, will I think Redwood Research has been net-good for the world?
Dec 3, 11:22 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
82.91%chance
13444
OptionVotes
1230
926
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
Jan 15, 11:45 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM
11.15%chance
12412
OptionVotes
469
78
OptionVotes
1340
746
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