OptionProbability
Perplexity
Mistral
Cohere
Hugging Face
Anthropic
Thinking Machines Lab
28
15
14
9
5
OptionVotes
YES
NO
6660
150
Release GPT-5
Implement better memory across all chats
Convert into for-profit
Announce or release a social media platform
Release a significant update to Sora
Make another aquisition/merger other than Windsurf and io for >1 billion USD
Release another developer model like GPT4.1
Reach a 500 billion dollar valuation
Be beaten by Google in text generation on the "Humanity's last exam" leaderboard
Reach a 750 billion dollar valuation
Give equity to Sam Altman
Release an IDE (Windsurf or other)
Create a new different state of the art learning algorithm
Build AGI internally
100
98
77
40
21
17
16
4
4059
106
4134
242
489
Visual Studio Code (w/ Github Copilot or any other built-in)
Cursor
Other
Zed
Visual Studio Code (w/ 3rd party agent)
Any code editor + CLI tools (such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex)
Windsurf
Firebase Studio
68
11
6
1
105
95
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