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Prediction markets for Word
Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?
Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
59.35%chance
5315168
OptionVotes
1681
1326
Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?
Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
2.75%chance
234192
OptionVotes
4668
746
Will there be a word that is widely accepted as a slur for genetically modified human beings by the end of 2033?
Apr 4, 8:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
34.34%chance
502806
OptionVotes
2009
1968
Will anyone say the words "excuse me, princess" in the upcoming live-action Legend of Zelda movie?
Nov 8, 5:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
36.49%chance
431705
OptionVotes
1020
964
AI coins a word appearing in Merriam-Webster dictionary before 2030
Sep 8, 3:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.44%chance
231364
OptionVotes
1411
709
Will the term "the N-word" itself be considered obscene before 2036?
Nov 6, 8:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
10.68%chance
311038
OptionVotes
1351
929
By the end of 2028, will any of the Merriam-Webster Word of the Year finalists be AI-generated?
Apr 2, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
10.21%chance
12779
OptionVotes
1686
862
Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?
May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM
24.54%chance
24710
OptionVotes
1312
868
Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035?
Apr 9, 7:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52.79%chance
14560
OptionVotes
242
135
OptionProbability
29
29
15
12
5
5
4
1
Will Soy, Oat, Almond and other Non Dairy Milks still be allowed to use the word 'Milk' in the USA on Jan 1st 2028?
Dec 6, 5:38 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM
89.22%chance
15478
OptionVotes
984
887
Will "Stone Age Billionaire Can't Words Good" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Feb 10, 5:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.82%chance
227
OptionVotes
1013
998
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