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Prediction markets for Writer
Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?
May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM
42%chance
422978
OptionVotes
1394
1107
Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
Dec 18, 5:02 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM
3.79%chance
242389
OptionVotes
1428
948
Will Richard Hanania (political writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 2, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.51%chance
221991
OptionVotes
1270
952
How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?
Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
28%chance
19558
OptionProbability
1073
697
OptionVotes
214
47
Will a widely read online blogger/author/opinion writer turns out to be an AI before 2030?
Nov 3, 8:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
85.93%chance
5121
OptionVotes
173
29
By the end of 2025, will WGA writers be widely agreed to have worse job prospects/compensation due to AI screenwriting?
Jul 2, 4:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
65.96%chance
7112
OptionVotes
197
151
Will the non-fiction writers suing OpenAI and Microsoft obtain class certification?
Jan 8, 2:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
8.95%chance
1110
OptionVotes
160
16
OptionProbability
50
29
12
10
Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be confirmed to be Hiroshi Gamo by the end of 2028?
Jun 20, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45.25%chance
110
OptionVotes
110
91
Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be confirmed to be Hiroshi Gamo before he dies?
Jun 20, 6:02 PMJun 21, 6:02 PM
47.56%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
95
Will the identity of the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be kept a secret successfully until after they die?
Jun 20, 6:03 PMJun 20, 6:03 PM
47.56%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
95
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