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Prediction markets for Writing Help
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
57%chance
19241445440
OptionVotes
4997
3766
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.12%chance
3612488
OptionVotes
19925
5019
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
51.82%chance
5110184
OptionVotes
1050
912
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.01%chance
175392
OptionVotes
9916
2845
Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed before 2026?
Sep 13, 8:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10.01%chance
211912
OptionVotes
2223
753
Will there be a blockbuster movie in the US before the end of 2025 that is acknowledged as written by AI
Aug 6, 6:33 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
6.97%chance
331796
OptionVotes
1970
873
Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025?
Feb 4, 3:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
27.05%chance
12791
OptionVotes
1642
609
OptionVotes
1413
708
Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?
Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
19.93%chance
14535
OptionVotes
1329
744
Will there be accurate, 'privacy violating' AI available for public use in the US by the end of 2030?
Sep 19, 1:39 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM
80.83%chance
15336
OptionVotes
1133
949
OptionProbability
67
63
61
53
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?
Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
12236
OptionProbability
60
17
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
1