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OptionProbability
Red Dead Redemption 2
Halo: The Master Chief Collection
Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
Assassin's Creed Mirage
Assassin's Creed Shadows
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024
Crimson Desert
Grand Theft Auto VI
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
Grand Theft Auto IV
Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
Grand Theft Auto V
Tom Clancy's The Division
94
71
70
69
69
65
64
50
50
48
48
43
25
24
OptionProbability
USA
Canada
UK
A landlocked country
Florida
Italy
A country founded in a prime number year
At least six countries
A tiny country (<1000km**2)
A country with <3m people
United Kingdom
New Jersey
Saudi Arabia
Asia
Japan
South Korea
Alabama
Israel
Arizona
Germany
An island state (see comment)
A country founded in 1990 or later
Guam
At least 20 states
Mississippi
Singapore
At least 30 states
Sweden, Norway, Finland, or Denmark
Brazil
Finland
Russia
Mexico
Indonesia
Ukraine
India
Africa
Lithuania
Vietnam
Turkey
Argentina
Gaza or the West Bank
France
Mongolia
Taiwan (island)
South America
North Korea
China
The afterlife
Extended coma
Peru
Poland
Laos
At least 39 states
Ireland
Iraq
Palestine (West Bank and/or Gaza Strip)
Gaza
Space
South Africa
Nigeria
All five members of the Permanent UN Security council
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
96
96
96
96
96
90
80
13
12
12
10
7
7
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
OptionProbability
Bowers v. Hardwick
Humphrey's Executor v. United States
The Slaughter House Cases
Locke v. Davey
Carey v. Population Services International (Might be N/A'ed. See Below)
Brown v. Entertainment Merchants Association
Employment Division v. Smith
Morrison v. Olson
The Insular Cases
Hill v. Colorado
Kennedy v. Louisiana
Arizona v. United States
Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the restrictions on the distribution of contraceptives)
Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the advertisement of contraceptives)
Nixon v. General Services Administration
Plyler v. Doe
New York Times v. Sullivan
Texas v. Johnson
United States v. Wong Kim Ark (see note in comments)
Mapp v. Ohio
Jacobson v. Massachusetts
Bivens v. Six Unknown Named Agents
NLRB v. Noel Canning
United States v. Nixon
Griswold v. Connecticut
Gideon v. Wainwright
Miranda v. Arizona
Reynolds v. Sims
Romer v. Evans
Ex parte Young
Lawrence v. Texas
Obergefell v. Hodges
Batson v. Kentucky
Loving v. Virginia
100
95
50
48
46
45
35
35
34
31
31
30
28
28
27
27
22
20
17
16
15
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
6
6
6
5
3
2
OptionProbability
35% or higher Kick Return rate
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Any team scores 40+ points
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Pick Six
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
Fake Punt
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
Will a championship belt change teams?*
Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out
Safety Scored
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?
Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game
4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped
Overtime
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
A player gets an Octopus
The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number
Fat Guy Touchdown*
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game
A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)
All Starting Rookie QBs lose
All Starting Rookie QBs win
Any 400 yard passer
MVP Favorite Changes
Shutout
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
Scorigami
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*
99
88
85
79
77
74
72
68
67
66
66
66
66
62
60
60
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
45
45
45
40
40
40
40
36
34
34
32
31
31
24
22
17
10
OptionProbability
#149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating
#151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us
#169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels
#170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down
#150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world
#152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion
#153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work
#154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters
#155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after
#156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models
#157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it
#158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk
#159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less
#161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite
#162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI
#163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do
#166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere
#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion
#171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures
#173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe
#174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers
#176 – Nathan Labenz on the final push for AGI, understanding OpenAI's leadership drama, and red-teaming frontier models
#160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment
#164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives
#165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe
#175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child
#145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable
#146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious
#167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption
#172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news
#144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe
#147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals
#148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't
45
45
45
45
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
38
38
38
38
37
37
35
35
34
34
34
OptionProbability
35% or higher Kick Return rate
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Pick Six
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
Fake Punt
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Any team scores 40+ points
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
Safety Scored
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
MVP Favorite Changes
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Any 400 yard passer
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Will a championship belt change teams?*
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?
Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game
3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game
Overtime
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
A player gets an Octopus
The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number
4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped
Fat Guy Touchdown*
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out
Shutout
Scorigami
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
All Starting Rookie QBs lose
All Starting Rookie QBs win
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*
99
88
79
77
74
72
68
67
66
66
66
66
66
60
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
45
41
40
40
36
34
34
34
28
24
17
15
15
10
OptionProbability
35% or higher Kick Return rate
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Pick Six
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
Fake Punt
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Any team scores 40+ points
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out
Safety Scored
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
MVP Favorite Changes
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Any 400 yard passer
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Will a championship belt change teams?*
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?
Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game
4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped
3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game
Overtime
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
A player gets an Octopus
The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
Fat Guy Touchdown*
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)
All Starting Rookie QBs lose
All Starting Rookie QBs win
Shutout
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
Scorigami
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*
99
88
79
77
74
72
68
66
66
66
66
66
60
60
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
45
40
40
40
36
34
34
31
24
19
19
17
10
OptionProbability
35% or higher Kick Return rate
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Pick Six
Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out
Fake Punt
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Any team scores 40+ points
Will a championship belt change teams?*
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Safety Scored
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
A player gets an Octopus
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game
The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number
Overtime
4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
Fat Guy Touchdown*
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game
A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)
MVP Favorite Changes
All Starting Rookie QBs lose
All Starting Rookie QBs win
Any 400 yard passer
Shutout
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Scorigami
95
88
79
74
74
70
68
66
66
66
66
66
60
60
60
59
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
45
45
45
45
41
40
40
40
40
40
36
34
34
34
30
28
24
23
19
17
17
OptionProbability
Three
Four
Two
Five
Zero
One
Six or more
62
27
7
2
1
1
0
OptionProbability
six months or longer
six months
a month
two weeks
within a week
71
11
8
7
3
OptionProbability
At least one of the six left Millennium problems is found with a counter-example
No AI will be powerful enough to directly (as a necessary condition) lead to a significant discovery in math.
At least one of the six left Millennium problems is undecidable
A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory
Neural Networks are explainable and can be trained without gradient descent with better performance.
P vs. NP will be trivial (i.e., provable using simple methods taught in undergrad classes, e.g., with a counter-example)
Shinichi Mochizuki is right or almost right about abc conjecture
61
52
43
36
25
18
17
OptionProbability
Between 366 and 548 days (eighteen months)
Between 183 and 365 days (one year)
Between 549 and 730 days (two years)
Instantly
Between one and 182 days (six months)
More than two years later
Other
32
24
20
6
6
6
6
