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4chan News

    Prediction markets for 4chan

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    47669

    2098

    OptionProbability

    2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

    Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

    New Pope after Francis

    three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

    five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

    Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

    Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

    ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

    Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

    xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

    Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

    USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

    Taylor Swift has been married

    publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

    True Detective Season 5 released

    Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

    Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

    Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

    S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

    Putin still leader of Russia

    Xi still leader of China

    Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

    Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

    No humans on the moon since Apollo

    Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

    Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

    a twitter account has reached 500M followers

    Charles still King of UK

    Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

    One Piece manga is still going (original series)

    The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

    Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

    Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

    At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

    Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

    @strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

    the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

    George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

    Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

    Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

    Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

    Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

    Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

    The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

    Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

    Family Guy has ended

    the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

    Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

    Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

    prong.studio still operational and selling products

    Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

    Kojima's Physint game has released

    Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

    Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

    Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

    Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

    Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

    Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

    Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

    A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

    Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

    A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

    at least one spider man movie releases each year

    Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

    Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

    jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

    Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

    Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

    Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

    there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

    Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

    Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

    The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

    Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

    The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

    Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

    Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

    X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

    Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

    A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

    1200 or more official pokemon

    NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

    I'll be dead.

    Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

    China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

    There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

    At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

    Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

    China has landed a human on the moon

    doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

    Taylor Swift has been divorced

    All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

    Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

    a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

    Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

    Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

    Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

    someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

    a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

    Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

    JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

    Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

    Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

    No humans exist

    Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

    Jimmy Carter is still alive

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    Will 4chan exist in 2028?

    Apr 3, 8:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    89.66%chance
    272914

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1809

    834

    Is the 4chan tripcode "SATANZ0Gpo" Elon Musk?

    Apr 16, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    7.41%chance
    12623

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    354

    28

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