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Top stories

Trump Says He Backs FCC Revoking ABC, NBC Licenses

US Domestic Policy

Trump Says He Backs FCC Revoking ABC, NBC Licenses

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US Foreign Policy

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Prediction markets for ABC News

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

7429608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6082

164

Department of Education eliminated by June 2026

Dec 26, 12:22 AMJul 1, 12:00 AM

1.44%chance

4828703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8278

121

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

7.32%chance

10013504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3559

281

JD Vance and Usha Vance announce separation or divorce before June 1st 2029

Feb 7, 5:57 PMJun 1, 11:00 PM

17.51%chance

509712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2170

461

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

234504

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is arrested

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

20

6

5

5

3

Bird flu H5N1 outbreak in Australia in 2025 or 2026?

Oct 25, 3:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.46%chance

92575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1508

663

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

Jan 19, 9:56 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

12.88%chance

162540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2601

385

At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026

Jan 21, 6:05 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

56.6%chance

142012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.01%chance

261841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

975

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

885

Which U.S. late-night show host will still be hosting their show by Dec 2028, given recent firings and suspensions.

Sep 19, 8:38 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

15544

OptionProbability

John Oliver

Jimmy Kimmel

Jimmy Fallon

Seth Meyers

Bill Maher

Stephen Colbert

93

71

64

58

52

18

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

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