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Top stories

Voorhees Cashes Out as Ethereum Rally Squeezes Shorts and Triggers Whale Shifts

Voorhees Cashes Out as Ethereum Rally Squeezes Shorts and Triggers Whale Shifts

Authors

13

18 hours ago

Prediction markets for Activity

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.23%chance

140101362

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1436

1240

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8568735

If Manifold integrates Bluesky, how many active users will we have in 3 months?

May 21, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:06 PM

2530231

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.97%chance

523090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2082

563

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.42%chance

291126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

808

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

By what year will 1B+ people be active in the Metaverse

Nov 6, 6:57 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

45%chance

14461

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1155

765

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Dec 26, 2:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36%chance

8244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

113

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will EB-5 visas still be available in mid 2026 as an active program for investor Visas in the USA?

Feb 26, 6:23 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

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Aug 10, 2025
Aug 10, 2025
Markets
Crypto
Voorhees Cashes Out as Ethereum Rally Squeezes Shorts and Triggers Whale Shifts
Authors
13
18 hours ago

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