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Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.09%chance
124921
OptionVotes
5899
3086
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM
23.33%chance
233405
OptionVotes
1363
839
Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?
May 25, 5:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
17.35%chance
211786
OptionVotes
1391
870
OptionVotes
1205
830
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