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Agency for International Development News

    Prediction markets for Agency for International Development

    Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

    Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    41.87%chance
    322116454

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1186

    815

    Which government agencies will DOGE announce it seeks to privatize or eliminate?

    Dec 17, 4:02 AMJul 5, 3:59 AM
    5013644

    OptionProbability

    Department of Education

    Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

    National Park Service (NPS)

    Freddie Mac

    Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

    National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)

    Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco

    Fannie Mae

    National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)

    Small Business Administration

    Federal Statistical Agencies

    Ginnie Mae

    Federal Bureau of Investigations

    Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

    Transportation Security Administration (TSA)

    National Weather Service

    Internal Revenue Service

    National Institutes of Health

    The Supreme Court

    United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

    US Postal Service

    Amtrak

    100

    14

    12

    11

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    6

    5

    5

    4

    4

    1

    1

    🌖 What country will be the first to build a nuclear reactor on the Moon?

    Aug 5, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:49 AM
    162986

    OptionProbability

    None by 2035

    China 🇨🇳

    USA 🇺🇸

    EU - French reactor

    Other

    EU - UK reactor

    Russia 🇷🇺

    59

    13

    13

    5

    5

    4

    2

    Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

    Dec 14, 5:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
    142784

    OptionProbability

    John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

    John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

    James Comey – Former FBI Director

    James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

    John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

    Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

    Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

    Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

    Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

    Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

    Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

    Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

    Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

    John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

    Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

    Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

    Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

    Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

    Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

    Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

    Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

    Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

    James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

    Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

    Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

    Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

    Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

    Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

    Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

    Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

    Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

    Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

    Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

    Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

    Joe Biden – President of the United States

    Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

    Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

    Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

    Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

    Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

    Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

    Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

    Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

    Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

    Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

    Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

    Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

    Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

    Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

    Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

    Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

    Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

    Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

    Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

    Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

    Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

    Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

    Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

    Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

    100

    100

    100

    79

    76

    68

    68

    66

    66

    66

    58

    57

    56

    56

    51

    49

    48

    47

    46

    41

    41

    41

    41

    40

    40

    40

    40

    40

    40

    40

    37

    37

    36

    35

    35

    34

    33

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    27

    27

    24

    0

    Candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round of Maine dem senate primary?

    Dec 21, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    6888

    OptionProbability

    Graham Platner receives 50.00%+ in first round

    Janet Mills receives 50.00%+ in first round

    No candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round

    Any other candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round

    99

    0

    0

    0

    China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

    Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM
    82.14%chance
    17852

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    214

    47

    Donald Trump utilisera-t-il la bombe nucléaire contre l' Iran pour gagner la guerre ?

    Apr 1, 11:36 AMApr 1, 11:35 AM
    5%chance
    5751

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    436

    23

    Gaza genocide still labeled as genocide by Wikipedia in 2030?

    Oct 21, 12:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    54.7%chance
    9559

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    110

    91

    Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

    Feb 3, 10:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    14.28%chance
    7145

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    245

    41

    Will the World Bank lose it's AAA credit rating (2030)

    Apr 4, 12:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    38.34%chance
    565

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    127

    79

    US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?

    Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    25%chance
    00

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

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