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Top stories

Sharkey Threatens Environment Agency With Legal Action Over River Lea Abstraction

Natural Resources

Sharkey Threatens Environment Agency With Legal Action Over River Lea Abstraction

Authors

3

1 year ago

Imperial Household Agency Expands Instagram to Include Akishino, Hitachi, Mikasa, Takamatsu Families and Princess Aiko with Monthly Posts

Authors

9

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Agency

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.8%chance

5323348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

955

Will DOGE/Trump manage to shutdown at least 100 Federal agencies by 2029?

Dec 9, 1:00 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.75%chance

283106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3047

329

Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026?

Jun 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.08%chance

182716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

640

Will a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?

Mar 24, 9:32 AMDec 31, 6:14 PM

41.27%chance

322166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1231

754

Space agency announces mission to divert asteroid 2024 YR4 before 22 Dec 2032

Jan 29, 3:06 AMDec 22, 12:00 AM

1%chance

171966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035

Jul 28, 9:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.83%chance

241272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

965

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

993

Did federal agencies have advance warning of Jan 6 and fail to prevent it?

Jan 2, 4:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

578

OptionProbability

Yes, because of incompetence or disorganization

Yes, for any other reason

No

Yes, for psyop purposes or enabling a crackdown

49

31

13

7

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

Will "Towards a scale-free theory of intelligent agency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 17, 5:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

998

Will "What, if not agency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 2:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

999

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