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Top stories

Sharkey Threatens Environment Agency With Legal Action Over River Lea Abstraction

Natural Resources

Sharkey Threatens Environment Agency With Legal Action Over River Lea Abstraction

Authors

3

1 year ago

Imperial Household Agency Expands Instagram to Include Akishino, Hitachi, Mikasa, Takamatsu Families and Princess Aiko with Monthly Posts

Authors

9

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Agency

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.8%chance

5323348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

955

Will DOGE/Trump manage to shutdown at least 100 Federal agencies by 2029?

Dec 9, 1:00 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.75%chance

283106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3047

329

Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026?

Jun 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.08%chance

182716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

640

Will a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?

Mar 24, 9:32 AMDec 31, 6:14 PM

39.22%chance

332216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

720

Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035

Jul 28, 9:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.83%chance

241272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

965

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

Will Polymarket.com be fined by U.S. government regulatory agencies in 2026?

Dec 11, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.49%chance

5170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

38

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA- or lower before the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 12:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

6142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

88

85

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

993

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

Will "Towards a scale-free theory of intelligent agency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 17, 5:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

998

Will "What, if not agency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 2:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

999

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