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Top stories

Sharkey Threatens Environment Agency With Legal Action Over River Lea Abstraction

Natural Resources

Sharkey Threatens Environment Agency With Legal Action Over River Lea Abstraction

Authors

3

6 months ago

Imperial Household Agency Expands Instagram to Include Akishino, Hitachi, Mikasa, Takamatsu Families and Princess Aiko with Monthly Posts

Authors

9

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Agency

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.8%chance

5323348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

955

Will DOGE/Trump manage to shutdown at least 100 Federal agencies by 2029?

Dec 9, 1:00 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

10.77%chance

282775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2882

348

Will a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?

Mar 24, 9:32 AMDec 31, 6:14 PM

41.27%chance

322166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1231

754

Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035

Jul 28, 9:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.83%chance

241272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

965

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA- or lower before the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 12:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.27%chance

5134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

80

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

993

Which countries will join the European Space Agency as full members before 2031?

Mar 11, 7:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

598

OptionProbability

Latvia

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Canada

Croatia

Malta

Cyprus

55

54

52

41

36

36

31

20

Will Joshua A. Harrill still be at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by EOY2026?

Dec 19, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.81%chance

353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

Will "What, if not agency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 2:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

999

Will "Towards a scale-free theory of intelligent agency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 17, 5:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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