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Top stories

Gunman Fires 180 Rounds at CDC Atlanta Campus, Shatters 150 Windows

Gunman Fires 180 Rounds at CDC Atlanta Campus, Shatters 150 Windows

Authors

13

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Agency

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.8%chance

5223298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

905

Will a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?

Mar 24, 9:32 AMDec 31, 6:14 PM

41.27%chance

322166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1231

754

Will DOGE/Trump manage to shutdown at least 100 Federal agencies by 2029?

Dec 9, 1:00 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

16.58%chance

252077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2243

446

Will a global AI watchdog be set up in London, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency, by Jan 1 2026?

Jun 3, 1:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.09%chance

181589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1860

659

Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035

Jul 28, 9:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.83%chance

241272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

965

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

When will Brazil achieve Investment Grade status according to one of the major credit rating agencies?

Oct 16, 12:24 PMJan 6, 2:59 AM

10807

OptionProbability

before March 2026

before September 2025

before June 2025

before March 2025

before December 2025

66

7

1

0

0

By 2026, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 19, 3:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

14.91%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

909

Now that R/GA is an independent agency, will it embark on a new era of creativity and awards?

Mar 5, 11:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.1%chance

3402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1366

732

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

993

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

Will "Decomposing Agency — capabilities without desires" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 12:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

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