AI Group News

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

32.48%chance

26343264

OptionVotes

YES

7101

1860

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.46%chance

10619842

OptionVotes

YES

1771

1288

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.53%chance

1418546

OptionVotes

YES

1664

601

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.12%chance

3612488

OptionVotes

YES

19925

5019

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

29.37%chance

796575

OptionVotes

YES

2043

965

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

YES

10081

9577

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

YES

7894

5344

Why did we survive AI until 2100?

Jan 17, 4:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423100

OptionProbability

a big anthropic shadow

A small group made it impossible for anyone else to develop AI.

A humanitarian catastrophe hampered AI progress.

AI never got the capability to cause extinction.

AI became safer as it got more powerful without much human effort outside of some RLHFing.

Cognitive enhancement helped a lot.

Humanity coordinated on having a sufficiently long and strong AI moratorium.

Brain uploading helped a lot.

Jono from 2023 does not think I (the one being polled in 2100) qualify as a person.

A plan to mitigate AI risks succeeded and already had a post about it on the alignmentforum on 2023.

Open source AI created an egalitarian world where no one/few got in a position to (accidently) kill everyone.

Nobody wanted to develop AI anymore.

Humanity spread out over independent space colonies.

Will the company that produces the first AGI prioritize corrigibility?

Mar 12, 8:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.58%chance

261256

OptionVotes

YES

1906

525

When AI girlfriends will become socially acceptable to at least one age group?

Dec 16, 5:17 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

12316

OptionProbability

Later than 2037, if ever

Other

2026, 2027

2028, 2029

2024, 2025

By 2028, AI will be able to classify images of unseen objects into groups, having trained on a similar distinct dataset?

Jan 5, 10:48 AMJan 12, 7:41 AM

74.18%chance

341

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 5:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

AI Group News

Prediction markets for AI Group

Prediction markets for AI Group

Prediction markets for AI Group

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

Why did we survive AI until 2100?

Will the company that produces the first AGI prioritize corrigibility?

When AI girlfriends will become socially acceptable to at least one age group?

By 2028, AI will be able to classify images of unseen objects into groups, having trained on a similar distinct dataset?

Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories