AI Group News

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YES

YES

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a big anthropic shadow

A small group made it impossible for anyone else to develop AI.

A humanitarian catastrophe hampered AI progress.

AI never got the capability to cause extinction.

AI became safer as it got more powerful without much human effort outside of some RLHFing.

Cognitive enhancement helped a lot.

Humanity coordinated on having a sufficiently long and strong AI moratorium.

Brain uploading helped a lot.

Jono from 2023 does not think I (the one being polled in 2100) qualify as a person.

A plan to mitigate AI risks succeeded and already had a post about it on the alignmentforum on 2023.

Open source AI created an egalitarian world where no one/few got in a position to (accidently) kill everyone.

Nobody wanted to develop AI anymore.

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YES

A team announces that AI solves any puzzle

A team using an OpenAI model has the “best” results

A team with a Google model has the “best” results

A team announces that an AI independently solved at least 10 hunt puzzles regardless of order and standard puzzle unlock rules

A team announces that an AI solved at least 1 hunt metapuzzle (regardless of whether it solved any earlier puzzles or associated feeders)

A team announces that an AI independently solved at least 5 hunt puzzles *following* standard hunt unlock rules (can only skip puzzles or do free unlocks if other teams given the same option). A free unlock is not a solve

At least three groups or teams publish writeups of testing/training/benchmarking/etc. AI on the hunt

A team announces that an AI independently solved at least 1 entire hunt round (metapuzzle and any feeder puzzles whose answers were used to solve the meta). Does not have to be an opening round

A team announces that an AI independently solved at least 20 hunt puzzles, regardless of order and standard puzzle unlock rules

Later than 2037, if ever

Other

2026, 2027

2028, 2029

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NO

NO