AI Studio News

a16z List Shows ChatGPT Leads as AI App Market Matures

3 months ago

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.26%chance

412611081527

OptionVotes

YES

29008

16616

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

51.06%chance

12148810

OptionVotes

YES

1287

519

Will Open AI be sued by Studio Ghibli or block Ghibification in 2025?

Mar 26, 6:08 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

2%chance

778755

OptionVotes

YES

700

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.05%chance

607799

OptionVotes

YES

1368

741

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.42%chance

354930

OptionVotes

YES

3101

323

Will OpenAI form a partnership with the following studios/companies for using models for AI generated videos? (By 2026)

Mar 20, 12:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

313223

OptionProbability

Netflix

Twitch

Instagram

Tiktok

Snapchat

Warner brothers

Apple

Disney

Twitter

Google

If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?

Mar 18, 2:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15784

OptionProbability

Singularity

Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 3 movies are publicly available

At least 100 AI-generated original movies, more than 2 hours long, are publicly available and watched by 100k people each

A studio quality 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover exists

Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 100 movies are publicly available

A 120 minute Star Trek/Star Wars crossover exists and has Imdb score >=6

Netflix stock price lower than $50 or higher than $5,000

AI generated remakes of at least 100 cinematic movies are publicly available and watched by at least 100k people each

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

May 6, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16602

OptionProbability

Visual Studio Code (w/ Github Copilot or any other built-in)

Cursor

Other

Zed

Visual Studio Code (w/ 3rd party agent)

Any code editor + CLI tools (such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex)

Windsurf

Firebase Studio

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.5%chance

16286

OptionVotes

YES

1003

920

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

Jun 20, 6:22 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

55.15%chance

5241

OptionVotes

YES

1109

902

Emilia Moore AI predictions 2026

Dec 4, 6:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4228

OptionProbability

A political “anti-Clanker” movement emerges, with a “made without AI” designation on media and products.

AI proficiency becomes a graduation requirement in at least one major state university system (likely the UCs)

At least one major Hollywood studio makes a U-turn on AI, spurring a wave of usage on big budget films.

Billboard Top 40 and the NYT Bestseller List both have several debuts later revealed to be AI.

Voice dictation saturates engineering with over 50 percent usage in startups and big tech, and spreads outside Silicon Valley.

AI generated photos become normalized for headshots, dating app pics, Christmas cards, etc.

At least 10 percent of Fortune 500 companies mandate AI voice interviews for intern and entry level roles.

Driving a car yourself becomes widely viewed as negligent in markets where Waymo and FSD are live.

Midjourney lawsuit damages above how much?

Jun 11, 6:10 PMDec 31, 5:58 PM

9202

OptionProbability

Above $1,000,000

Above $10,000,000

Above $50,000,000

Above $100,000,000

Above $250,000,000

Above $500,000,000

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Prediction markets for AI Studio

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Prediction markets for AI Studio

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Will Open AI be sued by Studio Ghibli or block Ghibification in 2025?

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Will OpenAI form a partnership with the following studios/companies for using models for AI generated videos? (By 2026)

If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

Emilia Moore AI predictions 2026

Midjourney lawsuit damages above how much?

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