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Air Staff News

    Prediction markets for Air Staff

    OptionProbability

    Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

    Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

    Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

    88

    22

    13

    OptionProbability

    The NTSB's final report does not explicitly state that any of the above causes were the primary cause of the collision, or the final report identifies multiple equal causes, or the NTSB does not release a final report by December 31, 2025.

    The NTSB's final report explicitly states that pilot error (from either aircraft) was the primary cause of the collision.

    The NTSB's final report explicitly states that electrical or mechanical failure (whether due to unknown causes or explicitly due to a maintenance error) was the primary cause of the collision.

    The NTSB's final report explicitly states that air traffic control error or any other form of air transport support staff error (excluding maintenance of the aircraft) was the primary cause of the collision.

    86

    62

    24

    22

    OptionProbability

    The NTSB does not release a final report by December 31, 2025.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (due to unknown causes) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (due to unknown causes) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that pilot error (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (explicitly due to a maintenance error) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (explicitly due to a maintenance error) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report does not explicitly state that any of the above causes contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (explicitly due to a design flaw or manufacturing defect) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (explicitly due to a design flaw or manufacturing defect) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that air traffic control error or any other form of ground-based air transport support staff error (excluding maintenance of the aircraft) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that an intentional pilot action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that an intentional passenger action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

    45

    43

    43

    38

    37

    37

    37

    32

    30

    19

    18

    18

    OptionProbability

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that air traffic control error or any other form of ground-based air transport support staff error (excluding maintenance of the aircraft) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that pilot error (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB does not release a final report by December 31, 2025.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (due to unknown causes) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (explicitly due to a maintenance error) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (explicitly due to a design flaw or manufacturing defect) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (explicitly due to a maintenance error) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (due to unknown causes) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (explicitly due to a design flaw or manufacturing defect) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that an intentional pilot action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report does not explicitly state that any of the above causes contributed to the crash.

    The NTSB's report explicitly states that an intentional passenger action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

    99

    99

    82

    15

    14

    14

    14

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    PBS NewsHour airs December 31, 2027?

    Apr 15, 10:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    69.97%chance
    6555

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1526

    655

    OptionProbability

    The NTSB does not release a final report by December 31, 2025.

    The NTSB's final report explicitly states that pilot error (from any aircraft) was the primary cause of the crash.

    The NTSB's final report explicitly states that electrical or mechanical failure (whether due to unknown causes or explicitly due to a maintenance error) was the primary cause of the crash.

    The final report identifies multiple equal primary causes of the crash.

    Other

    The NTSB's final report explicitly states that air traffic control error or any other form of air transport support staff error (excluding maintenance of the aircraft) was the primary cause of the crash.

    The NTSB's final report explicitly states that an intentional pilot action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) was the primary cause of the crash.

    The NTSB's final report does not explicitly state that any of the above causes were the primary cause of the crash.

    42

    17

    17

    10

    8

    2

    2

    2

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