AlphaFold News

AI, Deuterated Pirfenidone, and Prime Editing Advance Alzheimer’s, AHC Treatment; Google DeepMind Funds CASP Amid NIH Cuts

12 days ago

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.3%chance

569655

OptionVotes

YES

2045

489

When will AlphaFold 4 be announced?

May 18, 12:39 PMJan 25, 10:59 PM

274515

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

36.86%chance

473297

OptionVotes

YES

1443

1123

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Jun 12, 10:01 PMJan 1, 3:46 AM

70.04%chance

402440

OptionVotes

YES

1662

394

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

1139

442

Will Veritasium make a youtube video about AI Alignment or Existential Risks in 2025?

Mar 2, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.46%chance

19494

OptionVotes

YES

203

179

Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?

Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

35.58%chance

5475

OptionVotes

YES

1345

743

In 5 years, will we see "dozens of cures every month as opposed to every few years"?

Jul 11, 2:50 AMJul 11, 3:59 AM

13%chance

10449

OptionVotes

YES

353

142

Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.73%chance

18421

OptionVotes

YES

1005

942

Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2025?

May 13, 6:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.95%chance

6134

OptionVotes

YES

130

Which 2024 AI paper will have the most citations in 2030?

May 12, 4:18 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

390

OptionProbability

Other

Gpt-4 passes the bar exam

Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions with AlphaFold 3

HuggingGPT: Solving ai tasks with chatgpt and its friends in hugging face

Lima: Less is more for alignment

How many of these jobs will have a 15% or more drop in employment plausibly attributable to AI by 2031?

Feb 12, 3:22 PMJan 1, 3:22 PM

34.44%chance

876

OptionVotes

YES

191

184

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Jul 21, 2025
Jul 21, 2025
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AI, Deuterated Pirfenidone, and Prime Editing Advance Alzheimer’s, AHC Treatment; Google DeepMind Funds CASP Amid NIH Cuts
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12 days ago

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Prediction markets for AlphaFold

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

When will AlphaFold 4 be announced?

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Will Veritasium make a youtube video about AI Alignment or Existential Risks in 2025?

Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?

In 5 years, will we see "dozens of cures every month as opposed to every few years"?

Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?

Will Alphafold 4 be announced in 2025?

Which 2024 AI paper will have the most citations in 2030?

How many of these jobs will have a 15% or more drop in employment plausibly attributable to AI by 2031?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Telegram