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Prediction markets for AlphaFold
Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?
Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
19.3%chance
569655
OptionVotes
2045
489
Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?
Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
36.86%chance
473297
OptionVotes
1443
1123
OptionVotes
1662
394
Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?
Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
32.46%chance
14587
OptionVotes
1139
442
Will Veritasium make a youtube video about AI Alignment or Existential Risks in 2025?
Mar 2, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.46%chance
19494
OptionVotes
203
179
Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?
Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM
35.58%chance
5475
OptionVotes
1345
743
In 5 years, will we see "dozens of cures every month as opposed to every few years"?
Jul 11, 2:50 AMJul 11, 3:59 AM
13%chance
10449
OptionVotes
353
142
Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?
Mar 17, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
68.73%chance
18421
OptionVotes
1005
942
OptionVotes
130
77
OptionProbability
44
26
12
9
9
How many of these jobs will have a 15% or more drop in employment plausibly attributable to AI by 2031?
Feb 12, 3:22 PMJan 1, 3:22 PM
34.44%chance
876
OptionVotes
191
184
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