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Prediction markets for Altman
Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?
Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
90%chance
13227405
OptionVotes
2397
846
Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?
May 14, 8:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
92.94%chance
5415227
OptionVotes
5525
1483
Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?
Jul 27, 3:26 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
61.29%chance
714952
OptionVotes
1266
784
Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?
Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
3.3%chance
134820
OptionVotes
5464
17
OptionProbability
52
12
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?
Sep 17, 6:10 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM
84.54%chance
282358
OptionVotes
2235
508
OptionVotes
1524
197
Will Sam Altman join the board of a current S&P 500 company by 2028?
Jan 23, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
51.63%chance
211065
OptionVotes
1010
986
Will Sam Altman and Dario Amodei hold hands again, before 2030?
Feb 19, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.6%chance
18973
OptionVotes
1322
756
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be in ARTIFICIAL, the movie about OpenAI and the firing and rehiring of Sam Altman
Sep 8, 5:47 PMApr 22, 12:59 AM
41.05%chance
13706
OptionVotes
1198
834
Will Sam Altman be CEO of Open AI when Strong AGI is achieved by any organization?
May 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
60.97%chance
17485
OptionVotes
1228
821
OptionVotes
1156
934
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