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Prediction markets for Altman
Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?
Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
90%chance
13227405
OptionVotes
2397
846
Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?
May 14, 8:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
94.04%chance
5212296
OptionVotes
6366
1425
Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?
Jul 27, 3:26 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
61.83%chance
694842
OptionVotes
1280
775
Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?
Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
3.09%chance
124819
OptionVotes
5494
16
OptionProbability
52
12
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?
Sep 17, 6:10 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM
84.54%chance
282358
OptionVotes
2235
508
OptionVotes
1309
343
Will Sam Altman and Dario Amodei hold hands again, before 2030?
Feb 19, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.6%chance
18973
OptionVotes
1322
756
Will Sam Altman be appointed to a governmental advisory role in technology or AI by 2029?
Jan 23, 3:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
65.46%chance
20589
OptionVotes
992
986
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be in ARTIFICIAL, the movie about OpenAI and the firing and rehiring of Sam Altman
Sep 8, 5:47 PMApr 22, 12:59 AM
43.87%chance
10551
OptionVotes
1131
884
Will Sam Altman be CEO of Open AI when Strong AGI is achieved by any organization?
May 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
60.97%chance
17485
OptionVotes
1228
821
OptionVotes
1156
934
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