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Top stories

Prediction Markets

July 2025 Polls Show Republicans Leading 49%-45% in Generic Ballot, Trump at 36%, NC Senate Race Tied

Authors

3

17 days ago

Prediction markets for American Party

Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?

Jun 5, 6:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.04%chance

999672710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13406

7947

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34%chance

318376916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

718

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

73.72%chance

7511924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2338

983

Who will win the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election?

Mar 17, 4:21 PMNov 4, 6:59 AM

55526

OptionProbability

Democratic nominee

Republican nominee

Stephen Hamilton (American Constitution party)

Willow Collamer (unaffiliated)

Other

80

17

1

1

1

Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.69%chance

723954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

742

Will the NFL establish an American Football team in London that participates in a regular season game before EOY 2026?

Nov 27, 9:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.73%chance

101692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

93

Will an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?

Dec 30, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.98%chance

201098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

560

Are libertarianism and autistic traits correlated?

Feb 18, 8:18 PMFeb 18, 11:59 PM

84.87%chance

241092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

798

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

Jul 10, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:00 AM

36.8%chance

4710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Which US 3rd party wins the presidency first?

Jul 9, 4:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

342

OptionProbability

Other

Libertarian Party

No Labels

Working Families Party

American Communist Party

Democratic Socialists of America

American Solidarity Party

America Party (Elon)

American Capitalist Party

Constitution Party

Forward Party

Green Party

14

13

12

10

9

8

8

7

6

5

5

4

If Santa Claus were an American registered voter, which party would he support?

Dec 24, 2:17 PM

140

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