July 2025 Polls Show Republicans Leading 49%-45% in Generic Ballot, Trump at 36%, NC Senate Race Tied

Recent polling data ahead of the 2026 U.S. Congressional elections reveals fluctuating leads between the Republican and Democratic parties. According to multiple polls conducted in July 2025, Republicans hold a slight advantage in the generic congressional ballot, with figures ranging from 47% to 49%, while Democrats range from 42% to 45%. Notably, the McLaughlin poll recorded Republicans at 47% and Democrats at 42%, and the RMG poll showed Republicans at 49% and Democrats at 45%. In contrast, other polls such as Echelon Insights and Fabrizio show Democrats slightly ahead or nearly tied with Republicans in certain samples. The American Party consistently polls around 5%. Compared to previous years, Democrats’ lead in generic ballot polls has narrowed, with a July 2025 RealClearPolitics composite showing Democrats ahead by 2.8 percentage points, a decrease from leads above 8 points in 2017 and 2019. Polls on presidential candidate preferences indicate Republicans leading with 53% support compared to Democrats at 41%, with former President Donald Trump commanding 36% support among Republicans. Additionally, polling on the North Carolina Senate race shows a tie at 48% between incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper and a pro-Trump Republican candidate. Market-based odds from Kalshi suggest a shift in the probability of party control of the House, with Democrats’ chances dropping to 69% and Republicans’ rising to 31% compared to April 2025.