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OptionProbability
He leaves Argentina during his first term
He travels to Chile during his first term
He travels to Brazil during his first term
He is photographed with Elon Musk
A photo of him with Trump is released
A photo of Milei with Biden is released
His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position
Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?
Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]
Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better
He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released
His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]
Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]
Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39
Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?
Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%
According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]
There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.
He wins reelection to a 2nd term
A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]
LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?
Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place
Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish
He travels to Bolivia
LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?
Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]
US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina
Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup
Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term
He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX
Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)
He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal
Will he ever be TIME person of the year?
He marries during his first term
Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees
He goes incommunicado for at least a week
Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)
He officially converts to Judaism
He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term
He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week
Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup
He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it
Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term
He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years
There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired
He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]
The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office
He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]
Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)
Argentina will win the 2026 world cup
He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]
The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use
Argentina will declare war
He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office
He travels to Russia during his first term
Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?
He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election
He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash
There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side
He has a child during his first term
He is excommunicated by the catholic church
He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]
He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash
He passes away during his first term before completion
Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week
Will Argentina join BRICS?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
91
91
85
84
83
81
78
76
71
70
67
60
56
55
55
50
48
47
46
45
44
41
40
40
40
38
36
34
31
31
29
28
26
26
25
25
23
21
20
20
17
15
13
13
12
11
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
OptionProbability
United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)
Alliance for Global Justice
International Workers of the World (IWW)
Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)
UNICEF
Media Matters for America
Planned Parenthood
Greenpeace
AFL-CIO
Oxfam
GiveDirectly
United Auto Workers (UAW)
Southern Poverty Law Center
Archive Of Our Own (AO3)
NAACP
Amnesty International
League of Conservation Voters
Sierra Club
GiveWell
American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)
OpenAI
The United Methodist Church (UMC)
Against Malaria Foundation (AMF)
85
50
50
50
50
50
47
47
45
45
41
37
34
33
31
31
31
31
28
26
26
16
15
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1194
838
