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Prediction markets for Anchor
Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]
Jun 12, 1:39 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM
15646269
OptionProbability
96
94
90
89
89
87
87
84
83
82
82
79
78
76
74
74
69
69
69
67
66
62
57
55
52
52
47
47
41
41
40
39
38
37
36
33
33
32
28
27
26
25
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
16
15
14
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
8
8
8
7
7
6
5
2
1
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.89%chance
1097018
OptionVotes
1949
893
Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?
May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
23.21%chance
425408
OptionVotes
1101
940
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027
Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.93%chance
583966
OptionVotes
1411
675
OptionProbability
98
97
86
80
78
63
62
54
53
50
45
33
25
20
14
Will at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
May 30, 5:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
9.01%chance
182312
OptionVotes
3178
315
OptionVotes
1625
591
What will be true about the Francis Scott Key bridge disaster by 2025? (Add Your Own Answer)
Mar 26, 11:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
341715
OptionProbability
100
100
82
65
41
36
34
34
32
29
25
23
20
14
14
6
2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
26.97%chance
251329
OptionVotes
1017
852
Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030
May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
47.58%chance
211069
OptionVotes
1276
435
By 2028, will anyone do a terrorist attack against AI capabilities researchers that is plausibly attributable to Yud?
Mar 31, 6:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.3%chance
30971
OptionVotes
1545
884
OptionProbability
58
15
9
9
5
5