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Anchor News

    Prediction markets for Anchor

    OptionProbability

    Gene Editing Therapies

    Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

    Human-level AGI

    Regenerative Medicine

    Brain-Computer Interfaces

    Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

    Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

    Bioprinting

    Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

    Solar panels with 40% efficiency

    Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

    Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

    Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

    Space-Based Manufacturing

    Quantum Computing Applications

    Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

    Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

    Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

    Seafloor Mining Robots

    A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

    Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

    Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

    Joywire

    Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

    Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

    Britain finishes HS2

    Lunar Bases

    Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

    City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

    Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

    Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

    Nuclear Thermal Rockets

    Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

    Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

    Commercial fusion power

    Fusion Drives

    Changing the height of an adult at will

    Direct Cognitive Collaboration

    Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

    Commercial asteroid mining

    Orbital Habitats

    Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

    Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

    Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

    Mars Base

    Changing a person's race at will

    Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

    Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

    Space-to-Earth power stations

    Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

    Human sex change at chromosome level

    Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

    Human Mind Uploading

    Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

    Vacuum Airships

    Time travel to the future

    Cryonics with Successful Revival

    Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

    Antimatter bombs

    Commercial cold fusion

    Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

    1% Dyson sphere coverage

    Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

    Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

    Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

    Space Elevator

    Faster then Light Propulsion

    Time travel to the past

    96

    94

    90

    89

    89

    87

    87

    84

    83

    82

    82

    79

    78

    76

    74

    74

    69

    69

    69

    67

    66

    62

    57

    55

    52

    52

    47

    47

    41

    41

    40

    39

    38

    37

    36

    33

    33

    32

    28

    27

    26

    25

    22

    21

    20

    19

    18

    17

    16

    16

    15

    14

    12

    11

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    6

    5

    2

    1

    Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

    May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    23.21%chance
    425408

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1101

    940

    Marvel megamarket

    Aug 13, 7:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    143042

    OptionProbability

    Galactus is shown

    Wilson fisk gets becomes mayor

    A number of street-level heroes (inc daredevil, punisher) have a team up plotline

    Battleworld is shown

    A number of child heroes have a team up

    The Avengers fight the X-men

    Peter parker gets the Venom suit

    Dr Doom is a Stark variant

    Peter parker wears the Venom suit across 2 or more films

    Robert Downey Jr is playing the main MCU Dr. Doom

    There is a large scale war with the US, New Azgard, Wakanda not all on the same side. Includes many military, non-superhero deaths

    Wanda controls the timelines to create Battleworld

    Galactus eats timelines rather than just planets

    Tom Holland's spiderman is the anchor being of Earth 616

    Matt will kill someone in Daredevil: Born Again

    98

    97

    86

    80

    78

    63

    62

    54

    53

    50

    45

    33

    25

    20

    14

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3178

    315

    Affordable weight loss drugs before 2030?

    Sep 21, 12:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    72.54%chance
    292097

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1625

    591

    OptionProbability

    Ship dropped anchor before colliding with the bridge

    An emergency generator was activated on the ship before the collision

    An overload trip mechanism was activated on the ship

    Ship ran propeller in reverse before colliding with bridge

    Ship switched from one primary fuel source to another between leaving and colliding with bridge

    Ship had bad fuel

    At least one member of the road crew working on the bridge received a warning about the ship via phone/radio before the collision

    The loss of power was caused by a cooling water blockage

    Ship sounded its horn at least once between the first power loss and the collision

    Between the ship undocking and the collision, a person on the ship sustained a physical injury serious enough to prevent them from doing their job

    Ship operators were on drugs

    A person on the ship at the time of the collision will be convicted of assault against another person on the ship.

    A person was trespassing on the ship at the time of the collision

    A part of the ship other than the anchor fell off between leaving and the collision

    Ship rudder was not disabled during power loss event.

    Container Ship was victim of cyber attack

    100

    100

    82

    65

    41

    36

    34

    34

    32

    29

    25

    23

    20

    14

    14

    6

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1017

    852

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1276

    435

    OptionProbability

    Tony Stark

    Peter Parker

    No character

    Other

    Steve Rogers

    Victor von Doom

    58

    15

    9

    9

    5

    5

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