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Top stories

Apollo Insurer Warns Regulators of Conflict Risks at PE-Backed Rivals

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Apollo

By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?

Nov 23, 10:43 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

1.07%chance

5522832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12460

575

When will a man land on the Moon for the first time since the Apollo missions?

Feb 28, 8:55 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

153208

OptionProbability

Before 2035

Before 2034

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

92

91

85

80

76

64

30

6

1

By 2032, which countries will have citizens who have walked on the moon? (post-Apollo)

Jan 12, 2:58 AMJan 3, 7:29 PM

171500

OptionProbability

United States

China

Canada

India

Germany

France

Italy

Japan

United Kingdom

Russia

81

69

40

40

40

40

40

39

39

10

Will anyone break the Apollo 13 crew's record for furthest people from Earth before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80%chance

171245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

935

Will more manned Artemis missions land on the moon than during Apollo?

Jan 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.91%chance

201175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1594

530

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

52%chance

181145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

422

Will the Artemis 2 crew break Apollo 13's human altitude record?

Oct 10, 3:10 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM

58.55%chance

71027

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

841

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon?

Dec 24, 5:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5326

OptionProbability

David Scott

Buzz Aldrin

Harrison Hagan Schmitt

Other

Charles Duke Jr

meh

30

29

27

7

5

1

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.23%chance

13321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

892

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (both among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)

Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8247

OptionProbability

Charles Duke

Harrison Schmitt

James A. Lovell Jr.

Fred W. Haise Jr.

Buzz Aldrin

David Scott

Other

Frank Borman

Thomas K. Mattingly II

Thomas Stafford

29

19

15

12

9

5

4

3

2

2

What will be the final net IRR for Apollo Investment Fund X? (X100)

Dec 7, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.85%chance

2105

OptionProbability

NO

YES

375

196

Will ANY Gemini or Apollo astronaut become centenarian?

Mar 10, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Law
Business
Apollo Insurer Warns Regulators of Conflict Risks at PE-Backed Rivals
Authors
5
4 months ago

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