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Prediction markets for Area One
Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.79%chance
1964882
OptionVotes
6128
4633
Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be freed into the US at any point in 2025?
Apr 10, 11:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.69%chance
12053616
OptionVotes
1503
665
Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)
Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
16.98%chance
1923681
OptionVotes
22111
4523
Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.5%chance
1812354
OptionVotes
9625
2195
Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.08%chance
188507
OptionVotes
6378
3288
Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.08%chance
127430
OptionVotes
7704
2333
Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.7%chance
266994
OptionVotes
7748
3856
Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?
Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
63.71%chance
596835
OptionVotes
13221
7577
Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.71%chance
156504
OptionVotes
6529
2770
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.01%chance
175392
OptionVotes
9916
2845
Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.09%chance
124921
OptionVotes
5899
3086
Will there be one organoid/organ-on-a-chip on human organs with higher ROC-area for testing poisons than mouse studies?
Mar 28, 6:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
48.64%chance
110
OptionVotes
70
70