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Top stories

Skip Bayless, Gilbert Arenas Launch ‘The Arena: Gridiron’ Football Show

Skip Bayless, Gilbert Arenas Launch ‘The Arena: Gridiron’ Football Show

Authors

6

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Arenas

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.82%chance

2511131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10330

9674

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2410099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

460

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

Apr 8, 2:23 PMApr 8, 2:15 PM

19.76%chance

246475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2015

496

First model 1500+ in Chatbot Arena?

Nov 28, 11:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92311

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Nov 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before May 2026

Before Mar 2026

Before Jan 2026

93

82

76

69

67

57

2

Will the recipients of naming rights money for the FTX Arena receive a demand to give their money back (e.g. to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Dec 19, 12:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76%chance

91954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

172

Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score in 2026?

Feb 2, 7:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51502

OptionProbability

1490+

1500+

1510+

1520+

1530+

1540+

1550+

1560+

1570+

1580+

1590+

1600+

98

95

82

73

63

59

49

41

34

31

28

26

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.2%chance

21988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

847

Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?

Dec 28, 11:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4830

OptionProbability

Gemini (Google)

Claude (Anthropic)

GPT (OpenAI)

Grok (xAI)

DeepSeek

Llama (Meta)

Mistral (Mistral AI)

Qwen (Alibaba)

Kimi (Moonshot)

70

45

29

29

25

23

23

23

23

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13815

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Meta

Cohere

55

43

40

38

38

35

34

17

Will Grok 4.2 be profitable on Prediction Arena end of February 2026?

Jan 27, 5:11 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

56.75%chance

10626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

873

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

First Thinking Machines model LM Text Arena rank?

Jun 10, 6:34 AMJul 31, 6:21 AM

579

OptionProbability

6 - 10

1 - 5

11 - 15

16 - 20

21 - 25

26 - 30

Above 30

33

19

15

9

9

9

6

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