Arm Holdings News

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

A country declares war on Israel

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

123

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Any country leaves NATO

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

USA leaves NATO

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Egypt formally declares war on another country

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Successful military coup in Venezuela

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Iran undergoes a regime change

Iran loses territory

Sudanese Civil War ends

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

China formally declares war on another country

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

A country declares war on United States

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Israel loses territory

Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Iranian troops enter Israel

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

China invades Taiwan

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

United States formally declares war on another country

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

United States formally declares war on Iran

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Humans will extinct

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Ahmad Vahidi

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Navid Shomali

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Before 2029-01-01

Before 2028-10-01

Before 2028-07-01

Before 2028-04-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-10-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-10-01

Q2 2024 or earlier

Q3 2024 or earlier

Q4 2024 or earlier

Q1 2025 or earlier

Q2 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2026-01-01

NO

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

2025

2026

2027

NO

NO

Before 2045

Before 2040

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2035

Before 2028