ARS News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2138218

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025?

Jul 14, 6:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.13%chance

263046

OptionVotes

YES

3978

1336

Apple releases AR Smart Glasses by 2030

Jan 23, 3:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

182185

OptionVotes

YES

1448

632

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Jul 15, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

151640

OptionVotes

YES

2000

500

Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030

Dec 22, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.32%chance

28720

OptionVotes

YES

1136

941

Will Apple announce a new AR and/or VR headset before 2026?

Feb 3, 2:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.65%chance

11534

OptionVotes

YES

175

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2032?

Nov 8, 6:18 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

55.5%chance

17514

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

Apple releases more than 3 VR / AR headsets before 2031

Jan 23, 3:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.04%chance

21505

OptionVotes

YES

1219

936

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2042?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

62.25%chance

18271

OptionVotes

YES

1002

988

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

YES

1023

968

How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)

Jul 18, 3:29 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

5184

OptionProbability

8 - 9

0 - 2

3 - 5

6 - 7

Will any country institute zones where it is illegal to go without wearing a MITM AR device by 2030?

Jun 26, 6:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14%chance

7150

OptionVotes

YES

248

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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025?

Apple releases AR Smart Glasses by 2030

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030

Will Apple announce a new AR and/or VR headset before 2026?

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2032?

Apple releases more than 3 VR / AR headsets before 2031

Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2042?

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)

Will any country institute zones where it is illegal to go without wearing a MITM AR device by 2030?

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