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Prediction markets for ARS
Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?
Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
2668236
OptionProbability
100
42
33
17
1
1
0
Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025?
Jul 14, 6:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8.82%chance
283548
OptionVotes
4460
1285
If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?
Jul 15, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8.29%chance
193513
OptionVotes
3326
301
OptionVotes
1448
632
Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030
Dec 22, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
75.32%chance
28720
OptionVotes
1136
941
Apple releases more than 3 VR / AR headsets before 2031
Jan 23, 3:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
81.33%chance
23565
OptionVotes
983
982
Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2032?
Nov 8, 6:18 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM
55.5%chance
17514
OptionVotes
1107
903
Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2042?
Nov 8, 6:22 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM
62.25%chance
18271
OptionVotes
1002
988
Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?
Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
47.81%chance
16269
OptionVotes
1023
968
Will any country institute zones where it is illegal to go without wearing a MITM AR device by 2030?
Jun 26, 6:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
14%chance
7150
OptionVotes
248
40
OptionVotes
356
249
Will augmented reality (AR) contact lenses be a thing before 2030 ?
Jan 2, 10:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
30%chance
341
OptionVotes
125
68