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Prediction markets for ARS
Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?
Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3377099
OptionProbability
100
26
20
9
0
0
0
If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?
Jul 15, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4.56%chance
205431
OptionVotes
4576
219
How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)
Jul 18, 3:29 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM
142566
OptionProbability
81
12
5
1
1
0
OptionVotes
1448
632
Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030
Dec 22, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
75.32%chance
28720
OptionVotes
1136
941
Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2032?
Nov 8, 6:18 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM
46.53%chance
19690
OptionVotes
1079
923
OptionVotes
1093
677
Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2042?
Nov 8, 6:22 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM
62.25%chance
18271
OptionVotes
1002
988
Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?
Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
47.81%chance
16269
OptionVotes
1023
968
Will any country institute zones where it is illegal to go without wearing a MITM AR device by 2030?
Jun 26, 6:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
14%chance
7150
OptionVotes
248
40
OptionProbability
38
27
25
10
OptionVotes
356
249