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Prediction markets for ASI

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23%chance

7879649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

964

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Dec 21, 3:51 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

21.05%chance

6120998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

979

968

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.26%chance

6218979

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

904

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

31%chance

6515001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

848

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.67%chance

619489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

805

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

43.95%chance

576457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

775

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

47.4%chance

504889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1121

783

If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it begin mining the moon within a year?

Apr 8, 11:11 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.72%chance

454105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

906

Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true?

Feb 10, 1:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

6.03%chance

492337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1536

921

Will ASI be achieved before a surgery takes place on the moon

Mar 29, 11:03 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

69.52%chance

222102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

987

967

If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?

Jun 5, 4:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24%chance

431593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

52%chance

181145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

422

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