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Top stories

Seventy Nairobi MCAs Launch Impeachment Drive Against Governor Sakaja

Seventy Nairobi MCAs Launch Impeachment Drive Against Governor Sakaja

Authors

5

8 months ago

Ex-Kogi Governor Bello Presses Lawmakers to Pass All Ododo Bills

Ex-Kogi Governor Bello Presses Lawmakers to Pass All Ododo Bills

Authors

3

9 months ago

California GOP Sues Over Maps, Floats Two-State Split Amid Redistricting Fight

California GOP Sues Over Maps, Floats Two-State Split Amid Redistricting Fight

Authors

34

8 months ago

California Lawmakers Begin Hearings on Governor’s Redistricting Plan

Authors

3

9 months ago

New York Lawmaker Seeks 0.2% Tax on Crypto Trades to Fund Addiction Programs

Authors

5

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Assembly

Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030?

Aug 12, 7:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.96%chance

5623463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

851

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.49%chance

2710441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3282

305

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM

15.21%chance

152357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2361

424

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Mar 16, 11:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.64%chance

361361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

819

Will all extant mammal species have their genome sequenced and assembled by 2035?

Aug 29, 11:05 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.57%chance

13769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

926

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

442

Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ?

May 20, 1:20 PMMay 28, 3:59 AM

12.51%chance

15567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1431

828

Will a robot be able to assemble LEGOs from a LEGO instruction set by EOY2026?

Sep 26, 6:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.21%chance

11439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

37

Will Ohio House Bill 249 be signed into law in the 136th General Assembly?

Apr 2, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.1%chance

4351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

798

When will a robot assemble flat-pack furniture from printed instructions?

Feb 25, 4:23 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2181

OptionProbability

>=2036

Jan 2028-Dec 2029

Jan 2026-Dec 2027

Jan 2030-Dec 2031

Jan 2032-Dec 2033

Jan 2034-Dec 2035

22

19

16

16

13

13

Russia assembles a domestic tribunal by EOY2050?

Aug 30, 6:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

Nov 16, 7:44 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

340

340

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