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Top stories

Osaka Metro Failure Strands 30,000 at Kansai Expo Overnight

Osaka Metro Failure Strands 30,000 at Kansai Expo Overnight

Authors

11

21 hours ago

Prediction markets for Association

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will there be public consensus that Adrian Dittman is directly controlled or associated with Elon Musk by end of 2025?

Dec 28, 11:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.01%chance

265528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

Will Flannery Associates' proposed city in Solano County be established and inhabited before 2030?

Aug 26, 10:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.72%chance

161718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

347

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

48.87%chance

51705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

487

295

Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?

Dec 23, 10:24 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.89%chance

151356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1692

591

Will there be a crime associated with the One Ring within 5 years of it being opened?

Jun 20, 3:42 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

16.45%chance

16802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

962

Will MS Dhoni remain actively associated with CSK even after retiring?

Apr 28, 7:45 PMMar 31, 6:29 PM

84.07%chance

8279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

392

97

Will anyone associated with Helion be convicted of defrauding Helion investors by 2043?

May 16, 11:19 PMMay 18, 6:59 AM

15.14%chance

11234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

954

Will the Flannery Associates Solano county land be zoned other than agricultural by 2030?

Aug 27, 8:51 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.35%chance

771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

155

Will "Association taxes are collusion subsidies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 2:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

19.8%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

699

Will the American Diabetes Association cease to exist before 2030?

Apr 1, 1:50 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

29.39%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

105

Will the American Gem Trade Association add a new birthstone by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 2:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.06%chance

354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 14, 2025
Aug 14, 2025
Japan
World
Osaka Metro Failure Strands 30,000 at Kansai Expo Overnight
Authors
11
21 hours ago

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