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Prediction markets for Association
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
Will there be public consensus that Adrian Dittman is directly controlled or associated with Elon Musk by end of 2025?
Dec 28, 11:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4.01%chance
265528
OptionVotes
490
20
Will Flannery Associates' proposed city in Solano County be established and inhabited before 2030?
Aug 26, 10:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
24.72%chance
161718
OptionVotes
1760
347
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)
Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM
48.87%chance
51705
OptionVotes
487
295
Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?
Dec 23, 10:24 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
25.89%chance
151356
OptionVotes
1692
591
Will there be a crime associated with the One Ring within 5 years of it being opened?
Jun 20, 3:42 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
16.45%chance
16802
OptionVotes
1065
962
Will MS Dhoni remain actively associated with CSK even after retiring?
Apr 28, 7:45 PMMar 31, 6:29 PM
84.07%chance
8279
OptionVotes
392
97
Will anyone associated with Helion be convicted of defrauding Helion investors by 2043?
May 16, 11:19 PMMay 18, 6:59 AM
15.14%chance
11234
OptionVotes
1139
954
Will the Flannery Associates Solano county land be zoned other than agricultural by 2030?
Aug 27, 8:51 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
65.35%chance
771
OptionVotes
190
155
Will "Association taxes are collusion subsidies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 10, 2:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
19.8%chance
260
OptionVotes
1060
699
Will the American Diabetes Association cease to exist before 2030?
Apr 1, 1:50 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM
29.39%chance
255
OptionVotes
195
105
Will the American Gem Trade Association add a new birthstone by the end of 2028?
Aug 3, 2:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.06%chance
354
OptionVotes
128
78
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