OptionProbability
[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)
[AUS] Red flag during qualifying
[AUS] At least 3 DNF
[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session
[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team
[AUS] winner has no WDC title
[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)
[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium
[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race
[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying
[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race
[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)
[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race
[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium
[JAP] Antonelli wins the race
[MIA] Non-Mercedes pole position in sprint qualifying
[MIA] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race
[MIA] Leclerc podium in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes finishes outside the top 5 in the sprint race
[MIA] Gasly reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Antonelli wins the main race
[MIA] A McLaren on the podium in the main race
[MIA] Race start time is changed or cancelled due to weather conditions
[CAN] Three different teams on the podium (main race)
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint qualifying
[CAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the sprint race
[CAN] 5 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] An Alpine finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton finishes on podium in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton outfinishes Verstappen (main race)
[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race
[MON] Red flag during qualifying
[MON] Red flag during the race
[MON] A driver overtakes their teammate on track
[MON] Safety car (non-virtual) during the race
[MON] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[MON] Three different teams on the podium
[MON] Hadjar finishes in top 5 (race)
[MON] A Williams scores points (top 10)
[MON] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] An Audi reaches Q3
[BAR] Hamilton on the podium
[BAR] Verstappen finishes in top 5
[BAR] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] At least one driver that finishes in top 5 does 3 pit stops (or more)
[BAR] At least one podium finisher from team other than Ferrari or Mercedes
[AUT] Qualifying lap invalidated due to track limits
[AUT] Both Ferraris in top 5 in qualifying
[AUT] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 (race)
[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[GBR] Sprint race is won by a driver ranked top-8 in the championship
[GBR] Yellow flag first lap (main race)
[GBR] Both Ferraris in top 4 in the main qualifying
[GBR] Both Ferraris finish the main race in top 4
[GBR] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (main race)
[GBR] Both Racing Bulls finish the main race in top 10
[GBR] Antonelli and Russel gap within 10 seconds at the end of the main race
[SPA] Red flag in qualifying
[SPA] Antonelli wins the race
[SPA] An Audi reaches Q3
[SPA] Physical Safety Car during the race
[SPA] A Ferrari on the podium
[SPA] Hadjar finishes the race in top 10
[SPA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[SPA] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[HUN] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[HUN] An Aston Martin reaches Q2
[HUN] An Audi reaches Q3
[HUN] Russel qualifies outside the top 4
[HUN] Antonelli on the podium
[HUN] Hulkenberg finishes the race in top 10
[HUN] Both Racing Bulls finish the race in top 10
[ZAN] Leclerc on the podium of the sprint race
[ZAN] Non-Mercedes pole position (main qualifying)
[ZAN] Gasly finishes in top 10 in the main race
[ITA] Physical Safety Car during the race
[ITA] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[ITA] Italian driver wins the race
[ITA] Red Flag during the race
[ITA] Yuki Tsunoda scores a point
[ITA] Antonelli finishes the race in top 6
[MAD] Yellow flag first lap of the race
[MAD] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MAD] Kimi Antonelli wins the race
[MAD] Russel qualifies outside the top 5
[MAD] Verstappen on the podium
[MAD] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[MAD] Colapinto scores points
[MAD] Linblad scores points
[MAD] An Audi scores points
[MAD] Three different teams on the podium
[AZE] Red Flag during qualifying or race
[AZE] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AZE] Kimi scores more points than George
[AZE] Lewis finishes ahead of Charles
[AZE] One Aston finishes the race (lapped ok)
[AZE] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AZE] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
Leave it open for the upcoming GP
[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AUS] Yellow flag first lap
[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)
[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day
[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session
[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session
[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)
[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start
[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped
[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race
[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium
[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)
[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)
[CHN] Winner wins by 11.00 seconds or more?
[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF
[JAP] Yellow flag first lap
[JAP] Red flag in qualifying
[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying
[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3
[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)
[JAP] Linblad scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Bortoleto scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (face)
[JAP] A McLaren retires/DNS due to reliability issues
[JAP] Verstappen on the podium
[MIA] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Colapinto scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Hadjar scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the sprint race
[MIA] McLaren pole position in qualifying for the main race
[MIA] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes qualifies outside the top 5 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Hadjar doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Verstappen on the Podium in the main race
[MIA] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[MIA] Both Ferrari finish in top 6 in the main race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches SQ3 (Sprint Qualifying)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CAN] A Ferrari on the podium in the sprint race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the sprint race
[CAN] Yellow flag in the first lap of the sprint race
[CAN] Sainz scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] A Williams reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] Yellow flag first lap of the main race
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race
[CAN] Linblad scores points in the main race
[CAN] An Audi finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Oscar Piastri Finishes on Podium in the Main Race
[CAN] English broadcoast shows Colapinto's onboard camera view in the main race
[CAN] 7 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] Piastri scores points in the main race
[MON] 5 or more on-track overtakes
[MON] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MON] Wet or intermediate tyres used during the race
[MON] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[BAR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[BAR] Yellow flag in the first lap of the race
[BAR] Mercedes driver wins
[BAR] Both McLaren qualify in top 4
[BAR] Antonelli pole position in qualifying
[BAR] Hulkenberg scores points (top 10)
[BAR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[BAR] Both Mercedes drivers on podium
[AUT] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qual or race
[AUT] Red flag during qualifying
[AUT] Physical safety car during the race
[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AUT] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[AUT] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[AUT] An Audi reaches Q3
[AUT] Both Ferraris on the podium (race)
[AUT] Antonelli finishes ahead of Russel (race)
[AUT] Gasly finishes on top 10 (race)
[AUT] At least 2 drivers that finish in the top 5 did 3 or more pit stops during the race
[AUT] An Audi finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUT] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[AUT] Russel and Antonelli collide during the race
[AUT] Yellow flag first lap
[GBR] All three tire compounds used on starting grid (main race)
[GBR] All 22 cars classified in the race
[GBR] Wet or Intermediate tyres used in any of quals or races (sprint and main)
[GBR] The same driver wins both races
[GBR] Red flag during the main race
[GBR] Same pole sitter in both the sprint qualifying and the main qualifying
[GBR] Pole position margin for the main qualifying is less than 50 milliseconds
[GBR] Hamilton wins the sprint race
[GBR] Both Ferraris on the podium of the sprint race
[GBR] Hadjar finishes in top 8 in the sprint race
[GBR] Physical or Virtual Safety Car in the sprint race
[GBR] Russel qualfies 5th or lower in the main qualifying
[GBR] An Audi reaches Q3 (main qualifying)
[GBR] 4 or more DNF/DNS (main race)
[GBR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race
[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[SPA] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qualifying or race
[SPA] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in the race
[SPA] Norris finishes the race in top 6
[SPA] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race
[HUN] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] Red Flag during qualifying
[HUN] 4 or more DNF/DNS
[HUN] Ferrari pole position
[HUN] Both Racing Bulls reach Q3
[HUN] Video drone hits the sign over the track around turns 8-10
[HUN] A Ferrari on the podium
[HUN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race
[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda scores at least one point (sprint counts)
[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda finishes either sprint or feature race ahead of Lawson
[ZAN] Same winner of the sprint and main race
[ZAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying or main qualifying
[ZAN] Ferrari pole position in the sprint qualifying
[ZAN] Antonelli scores more points than Russell over the entire weekend
[ZAN] Antonelli on the podium of the sprint race
[ZAN] Non-Mercedes driver wins the sprint race
[ZAN] Physical safety car during the main race
[ZAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race
[ZAN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race
[ZAN] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 in the main race
[ZAN] first and second driver finish with a gap of less than 5 seconds in the main race
[ITA] Red Flag during qualifying
[ITA] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[ITA] Ferrari driver wins the race
[ITA] Aston Martin driver scores points
[ITA] Hadjar drives in the race
[ITA] Wet or intermediate tyres used in qual or race
[ITA] Gasly finishes the race in top 5
[ITA] Bearman scores points (top 10)
[ITA] A Ferrari on the podium
[ITA] Leclerc finishes the race ahead of Hamilton
[MAD] Leclerc misses race
[MAD] Red flag during qualifying or race
[MAD] Physical Safety Car during the race
[MAD] Carlos Sainz scores points
[MAD] At least five cars retire (DNF)
[MAD] Hamilton scores more points than Russell
[MAD] Leclerc crashes during any session and cannot participate in the rest of that session (FP, qualy or race)
[MAD] At least one car will be disqualified due to plank wear. Doesn't matter if they later get reinstated
[MAD] An Audi reaches Q3
[MAD] A Ferrari on the podium
[MAD] Antonelli leads at the end of the first lap of the main race
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
66
63
63
55
50
44
32
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A team principle gets replaced during the season
Hamilton gets a podium finish
Lewis Hamilton wins a feature race
race cancelled or moved due to military operations
A driver misses a race due to health reasons
WDC winner wins their first title
Kim Kardashian shown on F1TV in Ferrari garage during main race or qualifying broadcast
Esteban Ocon replaced before season end
A technical directive changes regulations to stop a dominant team or forces to change something important in the cars (e.g., flexible wings in 2025, Ferrari in 2022 with TD39)
Hadjar scores at least half as many points as Verstappen
Abu Dhabi and Qatar races cancelled
No pit crew injuries during any race.
Ferrari finishes 2nd in the WCC
WDC 1 & 2 from same team
Eight GP without a full safety car deployment.
A driver gets permanently replaced during the season
Lewis Hamilton gets a podium
We race at Portimao
We race at Imola
A rear-end accident because of super-clipping
Hannah Schmitz departure from RBR announced
Bottas scores more points than Perez
A RB or RBR driver is swapped out permanently
WCC is won with 5 or more races to go
WDC winner wins it by 10 points or less
A driver at Red Bull Racing gets replaced during the season
Neither Cadillac nor Audi finish WCC at the bottom
A driver gets a race ban due to penalty points
WDC is won with 5 or more races to go
Christian Horner starts a team principle position
Lando Norris finishes WDC in the top 3
Lance Stroll announces retirement
Mohammed Ben Sulayem steps down as head of FIA
The top three drivers in the WDC will be from three different teams
Reduced points awarded at Grand Prix (25% to 75% race completed)
Lewis Hamilton announces retirement
Bahrain and Jeddah races take place later in the season
Max Verstappen wins the WDC
Fernando Alonso wins a race (feature or sprint)
Aston Martin wins WCC
Williams misses the first public test on Feb 11-13
100
100
100
100
98
92
79
69
68
62
62
57
56
53
52
51
50
45
45
41
41
38
36
35
35
30
28
26
24
22
18
18
16
13
10
8
7
2
2
1
0
OptionProbability
Mercedes
Ferrari
McLaren
Red Bull Racing
Aston Martin
Alpine
Williams
Audi
Haas
Racing Bulls
Cadillac
Other
87
9
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
4717
212
OptionProbability
Mercedes
Ferrari
Redbull racing
Mclaren
Aston Martin
Audi
Cadillac
Williams
Racing bulls
Haas
Alpine
88
7
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Mercedes
Ferrari
McLaren
Red Bull Racing
Aston Martin
Alpine
Williams
Audi
Haas
Racing Bulls
Cadillac
87
9
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1270
787
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1595
589
OptionProbability
Will Inter Miami score 2+ goals?
Will Nashville score 2+ goals?
Will Vancouver score 2+ goals?
Will LAFC score 2+ goals?
Will San Jose score 2+ goals?
Will Chicago score 2+ goals?
Will New York City score 2+ goals?
Will New England score 2+ goals?
Will Seattle score 2+ goals?
Will Dallas score 2+ goals?
Will Inter Charlotte score 2+ goals?
Will Salt Lake score 2+ goals?
Will Cincinnati score 2+ goals?
Will Houston score 2+ goals?
Will St. Louis score 2+ goals?
Will New York Red Bulls score 2+ goals?
Will New York City score 4+ goals?
Will Minnesota score 2+ goals?
Will Any Team score 20+ goals to break Inter Miami's record from 2025?
Will New York City score 6+ goals?
Will Portland score 2+ goals?
Will St. Louis score 6+ goals?
Will D C United score 2+ goals?
Will Orlando City score 6+ goals?
Will San Diego score 2+ goals?
Will Columbus score 6+ goals?
Will New York City score 8+ goals?
Will Portland score 6+ goals?
Will LA Galaxy score 2+ goals?
Will Colorado score 6+ goals?
Will LA Galaxy score 4+ goals?
Will Philadelphia score 6+ goals?
Will LA Galaxy score 6+ goals?
Will San Diego score 6+ goals?
Will LA Galaxy score 8+ goals?
Will Toronto score 2+ goals?
Will Montreal score 2+ goals?
Will Toronto score 6+ goals?
Will Atlanta United score 2+ goals?
Will Austin score 2+ goals?
Will Montreal score 6+ goals?
Will Austin score 6+ goals?
Will Atlanta United score 6+ goals?
Will Sporting KC score 2+ goals?
Will Sporting KC score 6+ goals?
90
90
89
89
88
80
80
77
76
75
74
72
60
59
57
52
52
51
46
40
38
36
35
35
32
30
28
25
24
23
20
19
18
17
15
11
9
8
7
7
6
5
5
3
2
OptionProbability
Cadillac
Aston Martin
Williams
Alpine
Racing Bulls
Haas
Audi
Mercedes
Ferrari
Red Bull Racing
McLaren
66
10
7
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Mercedes
Red Bull Racing
McLaren
Ferrari
Alpine
Haas
Audi
Williams
Aston Martin
Racing Bulls
Cadillac
Other
16
16
14
8
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
OptionProbability
Tesla
Other
Rimac
Porsche
Bugatti
Audi
BMW
Chevrolet
Dodge
Ferrari
Honda
Lamborghini
Lucid
McLaren
Mercedes
Nissan
24
20
11
9
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

